IOSG Founder: Bitcoin has undergone a historic handover, optimistic about the first half of 2026.

Author: Jocy, Founder of IOSG

This is a fundamental shift in market structure, while most people are still viewing the new era through the logic of the old cycle.

In the 2025 crypto market review, we see a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation, with core data showing institutional holdings at 24% and retail investors exiting at 66% — the turnover in the 2025 crypto market is complete. Forget about the four-year cycle; the institutional era of the crypto market has new rules! Let me use data and logic to break down the truth behind this “worst year.”

1/ First, look at the surface data — Asset performance in 2025:

Traditional assets:

• Silver +130%

• Gold +66%

• Copper +34%

• Nasdaq +20.7%

• S&P 500 +16.2%

Cryptocurrency assets:

• BTC -5.4%

• ETH -12%

• Mainstream Altcoins -35% to -60%

Looks terrible? Keep reading.

2/ But if you only look at the price, you will miss the most important signal.

Although BTC is down 5.4% for the year, it reached a historical high of $126,080 during that time.

More importantly, what happened while the price was falling?

BTC ETF net inflow in 2025: $25 billion

Total AUM: $114-120 billion

Institutional holding ratio: 24%

Some are in panic, some are buying.

3/ This is the first key judgement:

The market dominance has shifted from retail investors to institutions.

The approval of the BTC spot ETF in January 2024 is a watershed moment. The market, previously dominated by retail investors and OGs, is now led by macro investors, corporate treasuries, and sovereign funds.

This is not a simple change of participants, but a rewriting of the rules of the game.

4/ Data supports this judgment:

BlackRock IBIT reached $50 billion AUM in 228 days, becoming the fastest-growing ETF in history. It currently holds 780,000 to 800,000 BTC, surpassing MicroStrategy's 670,000 BTC. Grayscale, BlackRock, and Fidelity account for 89% of the total assets in BTC ETFs. 13F investment fund plans.

86% of institutional investors currently hold or plan to allocate digital assets.

The correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 increased from 0.29 in 2024 to 0.5 in 2025.

5/ Looking again at the aggressive strategies of BlackRock and MicroStrategy:

BlackRock's IBIT market share accounts for about 60% of the BTC ETF, with a holding of 800,000 BTC, surpassing MicroStrategy's 671,268 BTC.

Institutional participation continues to rise:

• The holdings of 13F reporting institutions account for 24% of the total AUM of the ETF (Q3 2025)

• The proportion of more professional institutional investors reached 26.3%, an increase of 5.2% compared to Q3.

* Large asset management companies account for 57% of the 13F BTC ETF holdings, while professional hedge funds account for 41% of the BTC ETF. Together, they account for nearly 98%: this indicates that the current institutional holdings are mainly from these two types of professional investors, excluding more conservative institutions such as pension funds and insurance companies. ( They may still be observing or just starting to allocate. )

• FBTC institutional holdings accounted for 33.9%

Major institutional investors include the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC), the Mubadala Sovereign Wealth Fund, and the CoinShares Harvard University Endowment Fund (holding $116 million in IBIT), among others. Large traditional brokers and banks have also increased their holdings in Bitcoin ETFs. Wells Fargo reported holdings of $491 million, Morgan Stanley reported $724 million, and JPMorgan reported $346 million. This indicates that Bitcoin ETF products are being continuously integrated by major financial intermediaries.

The question arises: why are institutions continuously building positions at “high levels”?

6/ Because what they look at is not the price, but the cycle.

After March 2024, long-term holders (LTH) have cumulatively sold 1.4 million BTC, worth $121.17 billion.

This is an unprecedented supply release.

But the amazing thing is — the price did not crash.

Why? Because institutions and corporate treasuries have absorbed all of this selling pressure.

7/ Three waves of selling by long-term holders:

The three waves of selling by OG investors

From March 2024 to November 2025, long-term holders (LTH) sold a total of about 1.4 million BTC (worth $121.17 billion).

The first wave ( End of 2023 - Early 2024 ): ETF approval, BTC $25K → $73K

Second wave ( by the end of 2024: Trump elected, BTC surges towards ) The third wave $100K in 2025 (: BTC is expected to stay above $100K long-term.

Unlike the single explosive distributions in 2013, 2017, and 2021, this time it is a multi-wave continuous distribution. Over the past year, we have consolidated at the peak of BTC for a year, a situation that has never occurred before. BTC that has not moved for more than 2 years has decreased by 1.6 million coins (approximately $140 billion) since the beginning of 2024.

But the market's absorption capacity has strengthened.

8/ Meanwhile, what are retail investors doing?

The number of active addresses continues to decline.

Google search for “Bitcoin” drops to an 11-month low.

The small transaction volume of $0-$1 has decreased by 66.38%.

Transactions over $10 million increased by 59.26%

River estimates that retail investors will net sell 247,000 BTC in 2025, approximately $23 billion.

Retail investors are selling, institutions are buying.

9/ This leads to the second key judgment:

It is currently not the “bull market top”, but rather the “institutional accumulation period”.

Traditional Cycle Logic:

Retail frenzy → Price surge → Crash → Restart

New Cycle Logic:

Institutional stable allocation → Volatility narrowing → Price central axis elevation → Structural rise

This explains why the price is consolidating, but the capital inflow continues.

10/ The policy environment is the third dimension.

The Trump administration has landed in 2025:

✅ Crypto Executive Order )1.23 signed (

✅ Strategic Bitcoin Reserve )~200,000 BTC (

✅ GENIUS Act stablecoin regulatory framework

✅ SEC Chairman Change ) Atkins Takes Office (

To be determined:

⏳ Market Structure Bill )77% probability to pass by 2027 (

⏳ Buy stablecoins and short-term US Treasury bonds, with a scale growth of 10 times in the next three years.

Potential Impact of the 2026 Midterm Elections

In 2026, 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats will be up for re-election. In 2024, 274 “crypto-friendly” candidates were elected, but banking lobbyists plan to spend over $100 million to counter the influence of crypto donations. Polls show that 64% of crypto investors believe a candidate's stance on crypto is “very important.”

The friendliness of policies has reached an unprecedented level.

11/ But there is a timing window issue here:

There will be a midterm election in November 2026.

Historical Law: “Election Year Policy First”

→ Intensive policy implementation in the first half of the year

→ Wait for the election results in the second half of the year

→ Volatility Amplification

So the investment logic should be:

The first half of 2026 = policy honeymoon period + institutional allocation = optimistic

Second half of 2026 = Political uncertainty = Increased volatility

12/ Now back to the original question:

Why is cryptocurrency expected to “perform the worst” in 2025, yet I remain optimistic?

Because the market is completing a “hand-over”:

• From retail hands → institutional hands

• From speculative chips → allocation chips

• From short-term speculation → long-term holding

This process will inevitably be accompanied by price adjustments and fluctuations.

How to view the target price of institutions?

VanEck: $180,000

Standard Chartered: $175,000-$250,000

Tom Lee: $150,000

Grayscale: Record high in the first half of 2026

It is not blind optimism, but based on:

• Continuous inflow into ETF

• The listed company Dat has increased its holdings of ) globally with 134 companies holding 1.686 million BTC (

• A policy window period in the United States like never before

• Institutional allocation has just begun

14/ Of course, risks still exist:

Macroeconomics: Federal Reserve Policy, Strong US Dollar

Regulation: The Market Structure Bill may be delayed.

Market: LTH may continue to sell.

Politics: The results of the midterm elections are uncertain.

But the other side of risk is opportunity.

When everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position oneself.

15/ The final investment logic:

Short term ) 3-6 months (: $87K-$95K range oscillation, institutions continue to build positions.

Mid-term ) 2026 first half (: Policy + institutional dual drive, target $120K-) Long-term ( 2026 second half ): Volatility increases, observing election results and policy continuity.

Core Judgment:

This is not the top of the cycle, but the starting point of a new cycle.

16/ Why do I have this confidence?

Because history tells us:

• Retail-driven in 2013, peaked at $1,100

• The 2017 ICO frenzy, peaking at $20,000

• In 2021, DeFi + NFT, peaked at $69,000

• Institutions will enter in 2025, currently $87,000

Every cycle, participants are more professional, the amount of funds is larger, and the infrastructure is more complete.

17/ The “worst performance” of 2025 is essentially:

The transition period for retail speculation in the old world $150K towards institutional allocation in the new world (.

The price is the cost of transition, but the direction has been determined.

When BlackRock, Fidelity, and sovereign funds build positions on the left side,

Retail investors are still wondering, “Will it drop again?”

This is cognitive bias.

18/ Final Summary:

The year 2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process in the crypto market. Despite BTC's annual return being negative, ETF investors show strong “HODL” resilience. On the surface, 2025 appears to be the worst for crypto, but in reality it is:

• The largest supply turnover

• The strongest institutional allocation willingness

• The clearest policy support

• The most comprehensive infrastructure improvement

Price -5%, but ETF inflow $25 billion

This itself is the biggest signal.

Looking forward to the first half of 2026 📈

19/ As long-term practitioners and investors, our work is not to predict short-term prices but to identify structural trends. Key highlights for 2026 include: legislative progress on market structure bills, the potential expansion of strategic Bitcoin reserves, and the continuity of policies following the midterm elections. In the long term, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lays the foundation for the next round of increases.

When the market structure undergoes fundamental changes,

The old valuation logic will become ineffective,

The new pricing power will be rebuilt.

Stay rational, stay patient ⚡️

Data source:

CoinDesk, CryptoSlate, Glassnode, CoinShares, Farside Investors, Strategy official website, CME Group, Yahoo Finance

Not an investment advice, DYOR