ETF attracts $1.27 billion in funds but still can't save it? Analyzing the real reasons behind XRP's continued price pressure

Despite continuous capital inflows into the spot XRP ETF, XRP’s price movement has significantly underperformed market expectations. Data shows that the US spot XRP ETF has accumulated a net inflow of approximately $1.14 billion since its launch, with some statistics even indicating the fund size approaching $1.27 billion. However, as of the end of December, XRP’s price remains around $1.85, nearly 50% below its yearly high, sparking considerable market attention.

The core reason for XRP’s price weakness is not entirely due to the project itself but is closely related to the overall cryptocurrency market environment. By the end of 2025, the crypto market entered a clear risk-averse phase. After significant inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the early stages, there was a concentrated redemption in December. Tax-loss harvesting, holiday liquidity decline, and macroeconomic uncertainties led institutional funds to temporarily withdraw from risk assets. Against this backdrop, altcoins generally came under pressure, and XRP was no exception.

Structurally, the spot XRP ETF indeed has long-term bullish attributes. By buying XRP on the open market and locking in holdings, ETFs can gradually reduce circulating supply, which some institutions view as a medium- to long-term price support factor. However, the problem is that this supply tightening effect is released slowly and is insufficient to offset short-term selling pressure. On-chain data shows an increase in XRP inflows to exchanges recently, reflecting that retail and short-term funds still have a strong willingness to sell.

Therefore, even though XRP ETFs have experienced net capital inflows for several consecutive weeks, the price has not yet formed an effective rebound, highlighting a clear mismatch between long-term capital deployment and short-term market sentiment. This phenomenon is not uncommon in the crypto market during Q4 2025.

Looking ahead to 2026, market expectations for XRP’s price remain highly divided. Some extremely bullish forecasts believe that with improved regulatory environments, expanded ETF scales, and accelerated institutional adoption, XRP could surge to $8, representing over 300% upside. However, this judgment is more of an optimistic scenario rather than a mainstream consensus.

More cautious analysis suggests that a reasonable range for XRP in 2026 remains between $1 and $4. If the price continues to break below key technical support levels, such as around the 100-week EMA at $1.86, downside risks will significantly increase, and a retest of the $1.39 region cannot be ruled out.

Overall, XRP’s current predicament is not due to ETF failure but is a phase of pressure under macroeconomic cycles and market structure adjustments. For investors paying attention to XRP price trends, the impact of spot XRP ETFs, and the crypto market outlook in 2026, short-term volatility is likely to persist. The true trend change may only come when overall risk appetite warms up.