When Will the Crypto Bull Market Restart? Bitwise In-Depth Analysis of the Three Key Driving Factors in 2026

Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matthew Hougan recently issued a memo stating that for the cryptocurrency market to regain momentum and challenge all-time highs by 2026, it must successfully overcome three key obstacles. These three catalysts include: market stability, avoiding a repeat of the severe liquidation event on October 10, 2025; maintaining stability in the US stock market to prevent deep corrections from dragging down risk assets; and the US Senate pushing through the critical Clarity Act to provide a clear regulatory framework for the industry.

Currently, Bitcoin trades around $90,866, and the total market capitalization has rebounded to $3.3 trillion. Analysts believe that in the short term, market movements will be driven by events and thus volatile, but the sustained inflow of institutional capital and clearer regulation in the medium to long term are the core drivers laying the foundation for a bull market.

Market Stability: Clearing the “Liquidation Cloud” Is the First Priority for a Rebound

Volatility in the cryptocurrency market has always been a double-edged sword, capable of creating wealth but also destroying confidence in an instant. Bitwise’s Matthew Hougan lists “a stable crypto market” as the primary catalyst, directly targeting the “liquidation cloud” that loomed over the market in Q4 2025. He specifically mentions the “Black Friday” style event on October 10, 2025, when futures markets saw liquidations totaling up to $19 billion. Such chain reactions of liquidations not only caused asset prices to plummet but also triggered deeper concerns about the potential collapse of major market makers or hedge funds.

This concern is not unfounded. When a large institution faces significant losses, forced asset sales to maintain margin or pay debts can exert strong downward pressure, potentially triggering more leveraged liquidations in a vicious cycle. Hougan vividly describes these potential sell-offs as “a heavy fog hanging over the market.” This led investors toward a wait-and-see attitude at the end of 2025, hesitating to enter the market and thus stifling any potential rebound momentum. Therefore, whether the market can remain stable essentially tests its internal resilience and whether excessive leverage has been effectively cleared.

By 2026, initial signs of rebound—total market cap up about 5.6% since the start of the year, an increase of approximately $170 billion—seem to indicate that the most panic-driven moments are over. Investors are gradually putting the “October 10 event” behind them. However, this is only the first step toward “stability.” The real test is whether the market can avoid new systemic risk events in the coming months. This requires more transparent and robust risk management from exchanges, lending platforms, and hedge funds, and may also necessitate stricter oversight of leverage in derivatives markets.

From a broader perspective, market stability is not just about reduced price volatility but also about infrastructure reliability and participant confidence. Only when investors believe their assets won’t vanish overnight due to a collapse in some opaque corner will long-term, healthy capital continue to flow in. Therefore, clearing the “liquidation cloud” is an essential step for transitioning from a speculative to a value-investment-driven market and a psychological and structural foundation for a new bull run.

Stock Market Stability: The “Anchor” of Risk Asset Correlation Must Not Waver

In recent years, the correlation between cryptocurrencies—especially Bitcoin—and traditional risk assets like US stocks has fluctuated, but during macro storms, this correlation often tightens suddenly. Hougan’s second catalyst, “stock market stability,” is based on this macro-financial linkage. He notes: “If the S&P 500 experiences a 20% sharp correction, all risk assets will be overshadowed in the short term, including cryptocurrencies.” This insight reveals the current positioning of cryptocurrencies within the global asset allocation landscape—still viewed by many investors as “high risk, high return” assets.

Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Seoul Tiger Research, offers a more nuanced interpretation. He believes the stock market doesn’t need to surge wildly but must remain stable—neither soaring nor crashing. Such stability provides a reliable “anchor” for market sentiment. When stock market volatility (e.g., VIX index) is low and trends are steady, capital seeking excess returns is more willing to explore higher-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if the stock market itself is turbulent, investors tend to “cash out,” retreating from all risk assets, making it difficult for cryptocurrencies to decouple from the broader downturn.

Behind this linkage are common driving factors: global liquidity conditions, inflation expectations, and economic growth outlooks. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Global Macro Director, points out that the market consensus entering 2026 is that the US will maintain economic momentum through a combination of fiscal policy and accommodative Federal Reserve policies. Although the probability of the Fed cutting rates immediately at the January meeting is low (CME futures show an 89% chance), this “dovish” macro backdrop generally supports risk appetite.

However, Nick Ruck of LVRG Research issues a warning: while this environment supports risk-taking in crypto in the short term, it also makes markets increasingly sensitive to ongoing inflation risks and potential policy pauses (e.g., the Fed halting or reversing rate cuts), which could limit the upside for digital assets. Therefore, the crypto market is not expecting a “rising tide lifts all boats” scenario driven by a stock market rally, but rather a stable environment that doesn’t hold back. In such an environment, narratives like Bitcoin’s “digital gold” property and Ethereum’s ecosystem applications can stand out and attract independent capital inflows. The stability of the stock market effectively clears the biggest external interference for the crypto market’s independent trajectory.

Regulatory Breakthrough: Can the “Clarity Act” Become the Foundation of the System?

If the first two catalysts concern the market’s “health” and external “calm,” the third directly targets the industry’s lifeline—regulatory certainty. Hougan views the passage of the US Clarity Act as a “crucial step in providing a strong foundation for future growth.” The full name of the bill is “The Clarity Act for Innovators, Entrepreneurs, and Traders,” aiming to clarify the ambiguous legal status of digital assets between securities and commodities laws and establish a dedicated regulatory framework for the crypto market.

Currently, the bill is at a critical legislative stage. The US Senate aims to “mark up” it by January 15, 2026. This is an important legislative process where the Senate Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee will coordinate their versions of the bill, produce a final text, and push for a full Senate vote. David Sacks, White House crypto affairs head, has said that the bill is “closer than ever” to passage. Hougan’s analysis suggests that if it passes committee review smoothly, it would be a significant step toward final approval.

Clarity Act Key Milestones

• Current stage: Senate committee “mark up” coordination.
• Key date: Target January 15, 2026.
• Next step: Form a unified text and submit for full Senate vote.
• Final goal: After passing the House, signed into law by the President.

The urgency of this legislation lies in the fact that current US regulatory attitudes toward the crypto industry largely depend on administrative policies and enforcement tendencies. Hougan warns that without codified law, “current pro-crypto regulatory tendencies… could reverse under a new administration.” Passing the Clarity Act would embed core principles—such as which tokens are commodities versus securities, and the related disclosure and trading requirements—into law, removing major compliance barriers for institutional entry.

Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, emphasizes the importance of a mature regulatory framework. He notes that clear regulation will bring transparent onboarding processes for institutions, fundamentally strengthening Bitcoin’s narrative as an “inflation hedge” and “strategic asset.” When pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds can operate safely within a well-defined sandbox, it could unlock enormous long-term capital. Therefore, the Clarity Act is not just a legal text but potentially the “cornerstone” for the next institutional-driven bull market. Its progress is undoubtedly one of the most critical political-economic variables to watch in 2026.

Future Outlook: Parallel New Cycles of Institutionalization and Narrative Evolution

What will the crypto market look like after overcoming these three major obstacles in 2026? Several analysts envision a parallel scene of deepening institutional involvement and evolving market narratives. Tim Sun believes that short-term trends will be event-driven, showing “volatile but strengthening” patterns—for example, US midterm elections and fiscal policy shifts could trigger immediate market reactions. This indicates that the crypto market’s connection to traditional macro politics is becoming increasingly tight.

However, the mid-term core driver will undoubtedly be institutional. Tim Sun states that products like spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will continue to absorb long-term capital, pushing the market into a “winner-takes-all” phase and overall improving market efficiency. This means liquidity will increasingly concentrate in leading assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum and proven high-quality projects, making the market structure more mature but possibly more polarized.

Meanwhile, market breadth will require new stories to expand. Ryan Yoon of Tiger Research offers an interesting perspective: to trigger a broad-based, inclusive rally, a compelling new use case may be needed. He notes that some “OG projects” are regaining attention due to their focus on real-world applications. This suggests that the next growth phase may shift from pure financial speculation and macro hedging toward valuation based on real-world utility and technological breakthroughs. Whether it’s DeFi innovations, Web3 gaming breakthroughs, or RWA (real-world assets) sector explosions, any of these narratives could ignite specific segments or even the entire market.

Overall, the 2026 crypto market stands at a crossroads. On one side is the path toward greater maturity, institutionalization, and clearer regulation—requiring market stability, stock market steadiness, and legislative breakthroughs as prerequisites; on the other side are endless possibilities driven by technological innovation and narrative shifts. The three catalysts proposed by Bitwise are more like a “passport” for restarting the bull market—they point toward a healthier, more sustainable industry future. Investors should pay close attention to these deep structural factors beyond price fluctuations.