Bitcoin rebound stalls at 4%, rate cut expectations suppress ETF sentiment

On January 28, Bitcoin experienced a technical rebound after recently dropping to $85,970, but the rally was only about 4%, and it faced resistance again near $89,380, failing to generate sustained upward momentum. Despite some ETF-related developments in the market, price performance remains relatively weak, indicating that macroeconomic conditions are significantly constraining short-term trends.

From a chart structure perspective, Bitcoin previously formed a hidden bullish divergence on the daily timeframe, with RSI weakening while price remained high, temporarily pushing the price higher. However, this signal’s effect was short-lived, as buying momentum was quickly offset by selling pressure. Meanwhile, positive news regarding ETFs did not produce the usual amplification effect, reflecting cautious risk appetite among investors.

On the macro level, Federal Reserve policy expectations remain the dominant factor. The market generally anticipates that the upcoming FOMC meeting will keep interest rates unchanged, with limited room for liquidity improvement, which suppresses the continued rise of risk assets. In this context, even if technical indicators show some recovery, it is unlikely to push prices out of the consolidation range.

Notably, on-chain data shows that large holders have been increasing their holdings recently. Several addresses holding over 1,000 BTC collectively absorbed about 18,000 BTC, worth approximately $1.6 billion, indicating that medium- to long-term funds have not exited despite short-term volatility. However, distribution of cost basis reveals dense clusters of supply in the $90,160 to $90,590 range, forming a clear resistance zone above.

Looking below, there is significant support around $84,400, providing a buffer for the price. This support has allowed Bitcoin to repeatedly find footing during pullbacks, but if this level is broken, market sentiment could shift back toward a defensive stance.

In the short term, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase. Only a clear move above $90,830 can alleviate selling pressure and open the way for higher gains; otherwise, the price may continue to fluctuate within the range, digesting macro uncertainties.