The registration profile of ONDO ETF by 21Shares has brought this token back into the market spotlight. However, contrary to the positive narrative surrounding the ETF, the recent price movements of ONDO over the past few weeks reveal a less optimistic reality, as the price continuously hovers around local lows. This clearly exposes a significant gap between the expected “narrative” and the actual market price structure.
In the past 24 hours, ONDO has gained nearly 8%, pushing the price close to $0.25. Nevertheless, this recovery coincides with the overall upward trend of the entire cryptocurrency market, making it difficult to attribute a unique impact to the ETF news.
The reality shows that current buying pressure is mainly “riding the wave” of the market rather than stemming from new demand specific to ONDO. Although the price shows signs of recovery, at the time of writing, ONDO is still trading below key structural levels that were previously broken. The bears continue to dominate as they consistently increase pressure each time the price attempts to bounce.
Previous attempts to reclaim higher price zones have quickly failed, further consolidating the bears’ control. Price volatility has only expanded briefly during overall market breakouts, then quickly narrowed again—indicating short-term reactions rather than sustainable accumulation.
Therefore, although ETF news has helped attract attention back to ONDO, short-term price movements are still primarily driven by the overall market trend rather than intrinsic, explosive factors.
Bears’ structural defense has broken, despite slowing decline
ONDO’s price continues to face significant pressure as the bears are determined to defend the previously broken structural levels, maintaining short-term downside risk.
At the time of writing, the daily timeframe shows the price repeatedly rejected below the $0.356 level—an old support now turned resistance. ONDO’s multiple failed attempts to regain this zone indicate that supply still overwhelmingly dominates, hampering any recovery efforts.
In this context, the $0.20 zone is gradually emerging as the next important demand area. This level has historically seen prolonged accumulation and strong price reactions. Therefore, if selling pressure increases again, a decline toward this zone remains the main risk scenario.
Source: TradingView Notably, ONDO’s momentum indicators continue to reflect weakening conditions, reinforcing the view that the current price lacks the strength to sustain sustainable rebounds.
Leverage diminishes as traders step back
Activity in the derivatives market is cooling significantly as traders actively reduce their exposure rather than increasing bets in line with the trend. Total derivatives trading volume plummeted 40.51%, down to $227.96 million—an indication that speculative capital is retreating strongly.
Meanwhile, open interest decreased slightly by 1.50% to $68.52 million. The combination of weakening volume and declining open interest typically signals deleveraging rather than aggressive new position openings. Traders seem to prefer closing positions, avoiding chasing prices in a downtrend or rushing into early bets on a recovery. This suggests that confidence in the derivatives market is being eroded considerably.
However, open interest has not fallen sharply, implying that the retreat is more selective than panic-driven. Liquidity still exists but has become thinner—meaning that even modest capital can trigger significant price movements.
Source: CoinGlass### Funding rate favors the bears as short positions dominate
The funding rate has shifted into negative territory, confirming a clear shift of control toward the bears in the ONDO derivatives market.
At the time of observation, the funding rate fluctuates around -0.0024%, meaning long positions are paying fees to short sellers. This reflects a market sentiment leaning toward continued downward trend rather than expecting a short-term rebound.
However, negative funding rates rarely persist without notable consequences. When short positions are overly compressed, the market becomes more sensitive to sudden upward moves, increasing the risk of a “short squeeze.”
In this context, ONDO’s price has yet to reclaim key resistance levels on the chart, reinforcing cautious, even bearish investor sentiment. Therefore, the current funding rate more reflects a consensus on the trend rather than a clear entry signal, and indicates a defensive stance is prevailing, with the risk of significant, stealthy volatility accumulating as the price enters decisive movement phases.
Source: CoinGlass## Liquidation zones around the price
Finally, the liquidation heatmap clearly reveals the short-term risk boundaries for ONDO, with dense leverage clusters forming critical liquidity “bottlenecks.” Large leveraged short positions are concentrated above the $0.27 level, indicating this is a sensitive zone if the price experiences a strong rebound.
Conversely, long liquidation orders cluster in the $0.24–0.23 range, just below the current price. This means that a downward break could quickly trigger a domino effect of long liquidations. Conversely, any upward correction toward $0.26 would exert considerable pressure on the bears.
This structure is “trapping” traders within a narrow volatility corridor, where leverage is tightly compressed and the risk of liquidity hunts is increasing. In this environment, the price path may be less important than the amplitude of movement—once the price breaks out of this restraint zone, forced liquidations could amplify the move.
Source: CoinGlass Although ETF-related news has brought ONDO back into focus, the new market structure is the dominant factor influencing price behavior. Repeated rejections below $0.356, combined with weakening derivatives volume and a persistently negative funding rate, indicate that the prevailing sentiment remains defensive rather than sustainably accumulating.
Simultaneously, the high concentration of liquidation zones increases the risk of sharp volatility, but is not yet enough to confirm a clear trend. Therefore, the market currently views the ETF story as a speculative factor rather than a genuine catalyst.
Until ONDO can regain key technical levels with confirmation from flow and volume, the risk of further downward pressure remains, and the possibility of additional declines cannot be ruled out.
SN_Nour
