BlockBeats News, February 14 — According to a report to clients this month, Ned Davis Research strategist stated that despite Bitcoin experiencing significant sell-offs over the past few months, it still faces further downside risk.
Ned Davis Research Chief Thematic Strategist Pat Tschosik and analyst Philippe Mouls pointed out that based on an analysis of past Bitcoin downturn cycles, if the current bear market evolves into a full-blown “crypto winter,” the decline from peak to trough could reach 70%-75%, meaning Bitcoin could drop as low as $31,000.
Bitcoin has already fallen 44% from its peak in October last year. If it drops to the $31,000 level, it would mean a further 55% decline from current levels.
Tschosik and Mouls added that data shows that since 2011, the average decline during Bitcoin bear markets has been 84%, lasting an average of 225 days. Since Bitcoin peaked in early October last year, only 129 days have passed so far.
However, the two analysts also pointed out that a “winter” is not necessarily inevitable. Compared to the past, Bitcoin currently has more institutional buyers, which could bring greater stability to prices. “Historical data shows that the declines during winters or major bear markets tend to slow slightly over time. We believe this trend will continue,” they said when discussing price forecasts.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Strategy 公司 STRC 本周交易量创新高，推算对应约 3.9 万枚 BTC 潜在购买规模
加密分析师Ragnar指出，Strategy公司的永续优先股STRC本周创下7.45亿美元的单日交易量，预计可能对应约3.9万枚比特币的购买规模。尽管市场潜力巨大，但当前加密市场结构尚未完全转向牛市，比特币与纳斯达克100指数相关性较高，可能面临市场回调风险。
GateNews2m ago
交易所比特币储备占比降至 2017 年 11 月以来最低水平
Gate News 消息,3 月 14 日,链上分析平台 Santiment 在 X 平台发文表示,根据可追踪钱包数据,目前存放在交易所中的比特币占比已降至 2017 年 11 月以来最低水平。在过去超过八年的时间里,加密市场及全球宏观环境均发生了巨大变化,而交易所比特币储备比例持续下降,通常被市场视为长期持有倾向增强、可流通抛压减少的信号之一。
GateNews8m ago
BPI thúc đẩy miễn thuế cho giao dịch Bitcoin nhỏ nhằm thúc đẩy ứng dụng tiền điện tử
The Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) advocates for a de minimis tax exemption for small Bitcoin transactions to ease tax reporting burdens and encourage cryptocurrency use. They are collaborating with stakeholders to build support for the bill during a crucial legislative period. The proposed exemption aims to simplify tax regulations and promote Bitcoin for daily payments, potentially impacting the cryptocurrency market significantly.
TapChiBitcoin58m ago
Bitcoin và USDT đang cùng nhau đe dọa vàng như thế nào?
Các nhà phân tích của JPMorgan đã phát hiện một sự phân hóa đáng kể giữa dòng tiền của Bitcoin (BTC) và các quỹ ETF vàng kể từ khi xung đột tại Iran bùng nổ. Song song đó, một báo cáo khác tiết lộ rằng stablecoin đang ngày càng đóng vai trò quan trọng trong hoạt động buôn lậu vàng bất hợp
TapChiBitcoin1h ago
