BlockBeats News, February 20 — According to The Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter reveal that Trump is weighing a preliminary, limited military strike against Iran to pressure it into agreeing to a nuclear deal. This strike plan, if authorized, could be implemented within days and would target a few military or government facilities. If Iran continues to refuse Trump’s demand to cease uranium enrichment activities, the United States will launch a large-scale attack on the regime’s facilities — potentially aiming to overthrow the Tehran government.
After weeks of deliberation, it remains unclear how seriously Trump is considering this plan, though senior aides have repeatedly presented it to him. U.S. officials say recent discussions have focused more on larger-scale strikes, but Trump has not yet decided to order any attack. Some U.S. officials and analysts warn that such strikes could provoke Iranian retaliation, potentially dragging the U.S. into a broader Middle East war and endangering regional allies.
Additionally, market sources indicate that Iran, in a letter to the UN Secretary-General and Security Council members, stated, “If attacked, all bases, facilities, and assets of hostile forces in the region will be considered legitimate targets within Iran’s defensive response framework.” Trump’s remarks suggest “a real risk of military aggression.” Iran does not seek escalation or war and would not initiate conflict first.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. striking Iran before the end of February has risen to 26%, the probability before March 15 to 52%, and the probability before the end of March to 60%.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Prediction Market Opinion Labs Launches 50% Maker Rebate, USDT Distribution Daily, Up to 60% Maximum
Prediction market platform Opinion announced the launch of a 50% Maker rebate mechanism, where market makers can receive half of the trading fees as rewards after orders are executed, with payments in USDT on a daily basis. This program can be stacked with the existing Maker Liquidity Points program, and higher rebate tiers will be available in the future, reaching up to 60%, requiring the locking of $OPN tokens. This move aims to attract more liquidity as competition with competitor Polymarket intensifies.
動區BlockTempo8m ago
Opinion: Launch liquidity incentive mechanism, with 50% of fees allocated to liquidity providers
Gate News: On March 13, prediction market platform Opinion announced the launch of a liquidity incentive mechanism. Effective immediately, the platform will allocate 50% of the transaction fees from each successful trade to users providing liquidity for that order, aiming to incentivize liquidity provision and optimize market depth. This mechanism is designed to attract more liquidity providers to participate in market making and further enhance overall market activity.
GateNews24m ago
On Polymarket, the probability of Based FDV breaking through $100 million in bets within 1 day of launch has dropped to 45%
Gate News reported that on March 13, Polymarket prediction market data shows the probability of betting that "Based FDV will break through $100 million within 1 day of launch" has decreased to 45%. Additionally, the probability of breaking through $200 million within 1 day of launch is 19%, and the probability of breaking through $300 million within 1 day of launch is 7%. The trading volume for this prediction event has already exceeded $3 million.
GateNews47m ago
Bitcoin to Reach Gold’s Market Cap in 15 Years, Scaramucci Predicts; How Much Would BTC Cost Then? - U.Today
Anthony Scaramucci expressed strong confidence in Bitcoin, stating it's his largest investment. He predicts it could reach gold's value, potentially hitting $1.5 million per coin in 10-15 years. Tim Draper also forecasts significant Bitcoin price increases, emphasizing its limited supply.
UToday1h ago
Polymarket "Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Before End of March" Prediction Probability Falls to 2%, Total Trading Volume Reaches $24.72 Million
Gate News reports that on March 13, the Polymarket prediction market event "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire before March 31, 2026?" saw the probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before the end of March drop to 2%. The market recorded approximately $355,000 in 24-hour trading volume, with total trading volume reaching $24.726 million. While this event probability had previously surged, it has continued to decline this month, even as trading volume has expanded. Mainstream traders still view a near-term Russia-Ukraine ceasefire as an extremely low-probability event.
GateNews3h ago
Oscar Best Actor Prediction Market Odds Reverse: Michael B. Jordan Rises to 58%, Timothée Chalamet Falls to 32%
Gate News reported that on March 13, in Oscar Best Actor predictions, Michael B. Jordan's winning probability rose to 58%, while Timothée Chalamet fell to 32%. The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will be held on March 15, with fierce competition for the Best Actor award.
GateNews3h ago
