Macroeconomics

From March 10, 2026, 08:00 to 08:15 (UTC), BTC achieved a +0.70% return within 15 minutes, with a price range of 70375.2 to 70926.3 USDT and an amplitude of 0.78%. This short-term fluctuation is significantly higher than the volatility of mainstream coins during the same period, attracting market attention. The increased volatility has prompted investors to closely monitor the market. The main driver of this fluctuation is large on-chain capital inflows into mainstream trading platforms, with a surge in short-term buying activity. Additionally, some institutional or whale accounts concentrated their positions during the window period, significantly driving the price upward. Meanwhile, market exchanges BTC

As the US CPI data is about to be released, the cryptocurrency market is entering a wait-and-see mode. Bitcoin, after experiencing a correction, is approaching $70,000, and market sentiment has improved, but it faces a short-term key resistance level. CPI data will be the main factor driving short-term market volatility.

Gate News Report: On March 10th, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait collectively cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day.

International oil price fluctuations have sparked heated discussions in the crypto community, focusing on the impact of oil prices on Bitcoin trends. Analysts believe that geopolitical risks and inflation pressures have made oil a focal point, with some traders expressing concern about Bitcoin's safe-haven properties, though doubts remain. Currently, market interest in altcoins is subdued, with main attention on macroeconomic trends and commodity movements.

Deutsche Bank's Head of Research Jim Reid pointed out that the current global energy market trend is similar to that before the second oil crisis in the 1970s, especially in the 4-5 years following the inflation surge. However, the key difference between the two is that the high inflation expectations in the 1970s led central banks to adopt aggressive monetary tightening, whereas today's long-term inflation expectations remain stable.

Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded after Trump announced a temporary suspension of some oil sanctions, with Bitcoin soaring to a high of $69,537 and Ethereum reaching $2,053 at one point. Oil prices fell sharply, easing inflation pressures, and market liquidity expectations improved, leading to gains in risk assets. However, analysts warn that the US-Iran conflict could still impact shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and the decline in global oil prices remains uncertain.

Circle (CRCL) stock price rose 9.7% on March 10, with a total increase of 86% over the past month. Analysis indicates that the situation in Iran has led to a rise in crude oil prices, boosting inflation expectations and potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, high interest rates benefit stablecoin issuers, and changes in trader positions contributed to this significant surge.

CICC pointed out in its report that the U.S. economy faces a risk of "quasi-stagflation," with rising inflation stickiness, AI impacting employment, and increasing financial risks. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts may be delayed, economic growth is expected to slow down, risk premiums in the capital markets are rising, and capital allocation is tending toward risk aversion.

This article analyzes the dynamics of the Bitcoin derivatives market, pointing out that before macroeconomic data releases, the market shows downward risks through funding rates, open interest, and liquidation data. Negative funding rates, high open interest, and the subsequent employment report collectively influence market direction, revealing how the derivatives market quickly reflects macro pressures and trader sentiment.

Macro strategist Mark Connors stated that if the conflict between the US and Iran continues, increased fiscal spending and debt expansion could benefit Bitcoin. He pointed out that war financing will increase the supply of US dollars, weaken the currency's value, and drive Bitcoin higher. Since the conflict began, Bitcoin has risen approximately 3.6%.

U.S. President Trump will review plans to curb oil prices on March 10, as oil prices have already exceeded $100 due to the Iran conflict. The White House is concerned that high oil prices could harm the economy, especially on the eve of the elections. Meanwhile, officials are discussing measures such as jointly releasing strategic reserve crude oil with the G7. Analysis indicates that ongoing conflict will limit the impact of policies on the global oil market.

Gate News Report, March 9th, Refinitiv data shows that bets in the inflation swap market reflect traders' expectations that consumer inflation in the United States will accelerate to about 3% over the next 12 months, up from approximately 2.4% at the end of February. Market analysis suggests that inflation concerns are mainly focused on the short term, related to the ongoing conflict with Iran. Expectations for the 12-month inflation rate starting one year from now are more moderate, remaining around 2.4%.

Gate News Report, March 9th, Russian President Putin stated that oil production related to the Strait of Hormuz could potentially come to a complete halt as early as next month. Putin pointed out that logistics will shift to more profitable markets, and Russian companies need to capitalize on the current situation. Additionally, Putin mentioned that the increase in global natural gas prices has exceeded that of oil.

This week will release the US February CPI and unemployment data, as well as the January PCE Price Index. Meanwhile, US and Israeli military actions may impact oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. The implied volatility of major maturities has risen significantly, with BTC short-term IV exceeding 65%, ETH short-term IV exceeding 80%, and the skew indicator declining.

Gate News Report, March 9th, the New York Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) 1-year inflation expectation for February was 3%, a slight decrease from the previous 3.09%. Meanwhile, the 3-year and 5-year inflation expectations for the United States in February remained unchanged at 3%.

Gate News Announcement, March 9, US Bank stated in its latest report that the February CPI report is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's short-term policy stance. The bank expects the February CPI report to continue showing moderate growth in consumer prices, with both the overall CPI and core CPI expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month.

Gate News Report, March 9 — International investment bank Macquarie issued a market warning that if the Strait of Hormuz (one of the world's most important oil transit routes) remains closed for several weeks, Brent crude oil prices could surge above $150 due to production stoppages and transportation restrictions.

Gate News reports that on March 9th, the American Chamber of Commerce released the February Employment Trend Index (a comprehensive indicator of the health of the U.S. labor market) at 105.37, up from the previous value of 105.06 in January.

According to the financial services company NYDIG, the recent similarity between Bitcoin and US software sector stocks mainly stems from both being affected by macroeconomic factors, rather than reflecting any structural convergence. In the past week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced sluggish growth.

Bitcoin's recent decline to $66K, influenced by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and oil supply disruptions, showcases its volatility. As crude prices rise, investor confidence wanes, impacting risk assets like Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency's future trajectory remains uncertain amid ongoing geopolitical unrest.