As of December 28th (Friday data scope), the crypto market is short-term neutral to bearish, medium-term neutral, awaiting clear signals from macro and liquidity conditions. Below are the key judgments and basis (checklist):

1. Core Judgments

- Short-term (1-2 weeks): Neutral to bearish, with sluggish liquidity + cooling expectations of rate cuts + deleveraging, leading to price tug-of-war and difficulty in forming trending markets.
- Medium-term (1-3 months): Neutral, macro easing expectations still present but with uncertain pace, institutional positioning in mainstream coins providing support, and risk asset rotation and policy signals being key variables.

2. Key Signal Checklist from Jin10 Data (Positive/Negative/Neutral)

- Negative Signals
1. Federal Reserve's Harker (voting rights in 2026) stated: No rate cuts needed in the coming months, interest rates to remain at least until next spring, suppressing rate cut expectations, causing a broad market decline on December 21-22, with 88,000 traders liquidated.
2. Liquidity shrinks during Christmas holiday, BTC trading volume drops over 45% compared to normal days, futures deleveraging and open positions significantly decrease, risk appetite contracts.
3. Crypto Fear & Greed Index in "Extreme Fear" zone, funds shifting to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

- Positive Signals
1. Gold surpasses $4500 to hit new highs, resonating with "store of value / safe-haven" narrative, long-term support for BTC and other assets' value consensus.
2. Institutions continue to position in mainstream coins, e.g., Bitmine purchasing over $200 million worth of ETH, providing medium-term liquidity support.
3. De-dollarization and geopolitical situations, long-term benefits for non-sovereign asset allocations, including cryptocurrencies.

- Neutral Signals
1. Year-end holiday institutional exit, ETF fund flow data paused, market enters wait-and-see mode, price range oscillates ($86,000-$89,000 for BTC).
2. Technical stalemate between bulls and bears, rebounds mainly driven by technical buying and short covering, lacking incremental funds.

3. Trading and Positioning Recommendations Checklist

1. Short-term: Light or no position, avoid high leverage, focus on key breakout levels at $86,000/$89,000 (BTC), $2,900/$3,000 (ETH).
2. Medium-term: Gradually allocate in mainstream coins, prioritize BTC/ETH, avoid highly volatile altcoins and MEME coins, wait for signals such as Federal Reserve meetings in January-February, ETF fund inflows.
3. Risk Control: Strictly limit positions (≤30%), set stop-losses (e.g., reduce holdings if BTC drops below $86,000), prioritize spot holdings, minimize contract trading.