#预测市场 Recently discovered Polymarket, a prediction market platform, and it feels like opening a door to a new world! 🔮 I just saw some forecast data about Bitcoin and was a bit confused — the probability of dropping below $80,000 in December is only 16%, but dropping below $75,000 is just 5%? How is this gap calculated?

Even more interesting, the probability of breaking $100,000 is only 5%, but a few days ago there was a prediction that the probability of reaching $95,000 was 25%... Does this mean everyone is a bit uncertain? 😅 It feels like prediction markets are like watching a real-time "market sentiment live broadcast," where each number behind represents a large group of people's judgments.

As a newcomer, I am now very curious — how do these probabilities change dynamically? Is it like someone buying long and someone buying short, just like a real-time voting system? Also, can the experts here explain why this kind of prediction method is more reliable than just technical analysis? I am still learning, and I feel that tools like these can help me better understand the true thoughts of the market 📊