#以太坊大户持仓变化 $ETH where is it headed now? The short-term pattern is indeed weak.

The price has already dropped to 3172.53, breaking below the 30-day moving average of 3211, and falling into the lower band of the Bollinger Bands at 3185. Clearly, the bears are in control. Although the MACD has shown a bullish crossover, it is still oscillating below the zero line, making the rebound look weak. What's more frustrating is that the trading volume is only 42.8k, far below the 5-day average of 98.9k—market participants are clearly on the sidelines, with no one eager to enter the market, and the atmosphere is cold.

Key technical levels to remember: Upward, the area where the 30-day moving average of 3211 overlaps with the middle Bollinger Band at 3185 is the first resistance. If it can't break through here, the weakness continues; above that are the upper Bollinger Band at 3260 and the previous high at 3308. To push through these levels, increased volume is needed. Downward, the 7-day moving average at 3155 and the upper boundary of the dense chip zone are recent support levels. If broken, the decline will accelerate; further down are the lower Bollinger Band at 3110 and the psychological levels at 3050 to 3000. If these can't hold, the risk will be high.

There are three possible future scenarios: First, a consolidation and bottoming process, requiring a hold above 3155 and a volume breakout above 3185, targeting the 3185-3260 range—this has a three-star probability; second, continued decline, with volume breaking below 3155 and a MACD death cross, targeting 3110 to 3050—this has a four-star probability; third, a strong reversal, with daily volume exceeding 200k and a direct break above 3260, aiming for 3300 or higher—this is marked with two stars.

My advice for now is not to rush into action. When volume shows no clear signs of change and the direction remains uncertain, wait until the price clearly breaks above 3185 or truly falls below 3155 before making a decision. If you hold long positions, stop-loss at 3155; if you want to short, try a small position in the 3185-3211 range with a stop-loss above 3260. Focus on two indicators: whether volume can return above 100k, and whether the MACD can re-cross above the zero line.