BlockBeats News, on February 13th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January CPI data at 21:30 Beijing time on Friday. Market expectations are that the overall CPI for January will increase by 2.5% year-over-year, lower than the previous 2.7%; core CPI is also expected to fall back to 2.5% year-over-year, with month-over-month growth possibly rising to 0.3%. If the data meets expectations, overall inflation will drop to its lowest level since May 2025, continuing the downward trend from the high point in September last year.
Analysts point out that the slowdown in housing cost increases may suppress service prices, but tariff transmission, early-year price hikes by companies, and travel-related subcategories may still support inflation. RBC predicts that core CPI could increase by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding market expectations.
Although inflation data may further cool down, the market generally believes it will be difficult to shake the Federal Reserve’s current “wait-and-see” stance. CME tools show a higher probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at least until July. Economists note that, against the backdrop of fiscal expansion and three previous rate cuts, policymakers are more focused on the sustainability of inflation decline and employment market performance.
The current federal funds rate target range is 3.5% to 3.75%. Some institutions believe that even if inflation falls to 2.5%, it still falls within the “normal range,” but in the short term, policy paths are unlikely to change significantly based on single-month data.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Deutsche Bank: Current global energy trends are "strikingly similar" to the stagflation crisis of the 1970s
Deutsche Bank's Head of Research Jim Reid pointed out that the current global energy market trend is similar to that before the second oil crisis in the 1970s, especially in the 4-5 years following the inflation surge. However, the key difference between the two is that the high inflation expectations in the 1970s led central banks to adopt aggressive monetary tightening, whereas today's long-term inflation expectations remain stable.
GateNews2h ago
Trump announces lifting of oil sanctions, Bitcoin surges to $69,500, Ethereum breaks through $2,053, and liquidations reach $342 million
Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded after Trump announced a temporary suspension of some oil sanctions, with Bitcoin soaring to a high of $69,537 and Ethereum reaching $2,053 at one point. Oil prices fell sharply, easing inflation pressures, and market liquidity expectations improved, leading to gains in risk assets. However, analysts warn that the US-Iran conflict could still impact shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and the decline in global oil prices remains uncertain.
動區BlockTempo5h ago
Circle stock price increased by 9.7% in a single day, with a monthly cumulative increase of 86%
Circle (CRCL) stock price rose 9.7% on March 10, with a total increase of 86% over the past month. Analysis indicates that the situation in Iran has led to a rise in crude oil prices, boosting inflation expectations and potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, high interest rates benefit stablecoin issuers, and changes in trader positions contributed to this significant surge.
GateNews6h ago
CICC: The risk of a 'stagflation-like' situation in the U.S. has further increased and been validated
CICC pointed out in its report that the U.S. economy faces a risk of "quasi-stagflation," with rising inflation stickiness, AI impacting employment, and increasing financial risks. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts may be delayed, economic growth is expected to slow down, risk premiums in the capital markets are rising, and capital allocation is tending toward risk aversion.
GateNews6h ago
Bitcoin funding rates hit a three-month low, are the bears "jumping the gun" before the non-farm payroll data?
This article analyzes the dynamics of the Bitcoin derivatives market, pointing out that before macroeconomic data releases, the market shows downward risks through funding rates, open interest, and liquidation data. Negative funding rates, high open interest, and the subsequent employment report collectively influence market direction, revealing how the derivatives market quickly reflects macro pressures and trader sentiment.
PANews6h ago
Analyst: If the US-Iran conflict persists for months, debt expansion could benefit Bitcoin
Macro strategist Mark Connors stated that if the conflict between the US and Iran continues, increased fiscal spending and debt expansion could benefit Bitcoin. He pointed out that war financing will increase the supply of US dollars, weaken the currency's value, and drive Bitcoin higher. Since the conflict began, Bitcoin has risen approximately 3.6%.
GateNews13h ago
