ALeafKnowsAutumnII

Market Daily Report December 29
These past few days, Bitcoin has played the "drawing door" game three times in a row. On December 22, 26, and 29, it surged high and then quickly dropped. Currently, the short-term market is locked in place, most likely oscillating between $86,000 and $91,000. To see a clear trend, we probably have to wait until after the 2026 opening.
I. The Core Reasons for the Three Drawing Doors
1. Too tightly bound to US stocks
Now Bitcoin is completely following the market trend. Today’s decline was almost directly following the Nasdaq 100 futures down, which fell by 0.5%.

Trading strategy for November 24th

November 16

1. Core Observations of Weekend Market Trends

1. Short-term stabilization but weak rebound: The market achieved short-term stabilization over the weekend. Considering the low liquidity in the market during the weekend, it is already rare to maintain a consolidation phase; however, the strength of the rebound is weak, failing to effectively break through key resistance levels, and the bullish momentum is insufficient, raising doubts about sustainability.
2. External Influences and Subsequent Tests: This preliminary sell-off is directly related to the decline in the US stock mark

Don't let market panic cloud your judgment: the future market direction depends on these 5 core assessments!

1. The current essence of panic: the collapse of interest rate cut expectations + capital outflow in a data vacuum.

1. The Federal Reserve has clearly stated that it is difficult to cut interest rates in December, and the market's probability of an interest rate cut has fallen to 44.4%. Coupled with the continuous decline since October, institutions are selling coins to buy back, and panic has spread to core players.
2. Key data delay (September non-farm payrolls will be rel

Alts market shows independent strength: analysis of funding logic and trends

Recently, the trends of alts and Bitcoin have shown a clear divergence. This is not an abnormal fluctuation in the market, but a direct manifestation of the logic switch in large capital allocation—funding focus has shifted from Bitcoin itself to the layout of high-potential assets against a backdrop of liquidity easing, with alts becoming the new target for incremental funds.

1. Liquidity easing + concentrated positive news, altcoin market starts

The U.S. government shutdown has ended, eliminating the largest u

September 1 Market Daily Report

1. Core Dynamics

- Expectations for interest rate cuts have risen in September, as rate cuts last year drove Bitcoin to rise for three consecutive months; currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are reaching new highs supported by ETFs and institutional reserves, while most altcoins are at low levels. However, altcoin ETFs may be approved in concentrated batches in the next two months, and the breakout period is approaching.
- Tonight, wlfi spot will be listed on top exchanges, attracting attention equivalent to CPI and non-farm data, serving as an important bridge

August 28 Market Daily Report

Core Turnover Dynamics

- Staking market sets a record: over 1 million coins (450 million USD) exited staking, with nearly 750,000 waiting to enter, both hitting all-time highs. The intense long and short battles among institutions have become the main reason for the recent high volatility.
- Turnover characteristics: A withdrawal of 1 million tokens will create continuous selling pressure, while the funds queued to enter (such as institutional investors like Ethereum MicroStrategy) are optimistic in the long term, with an average staking cost exceeding $4000.

Analysis summary of the current bull run alt season

1. Current Market Stage Assessment

The current market is in the second round phase, with Bitcoin taking the lead, and from June, the focus shifts to Ethereum. According to past patterns, in the third phase, large-cap valuable altcoins will show signs of activity, and only in the final phase will nameless altcoins surge (the prelude to a bubble collapse). Currently, we have not yet entered the third phase of a general rise in altcoins.

2. Alt Season Logic and Opportunities

(1) Capital migration path

ETH's market share is increasing,

August 23 Market Daily Report

1. Ethereum: Refreshing Historical Highs

(1) Price Performance

- Yesterday it fluctuated in the $4200 range, today it rose to a maximum of $4887, setting a new historical high.
- Market capitalization of approximately 500 billion USD, with a rise of 20% in just a few hours.

(2) Driving Factors

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released dovish signals in his speech at Jackson Hole, with the market expecting a more than 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month, becoming a direct driver of the price surge.

(3) Market Analysis

- The characte

August 22 Market Daily Report

Core theme: Jackson Hole annual meeting sets the tone for September interest rate cut expectations, tonight marks a key turning point in the market.

1. Core Event: Macro Policy Direction at 10 PM Tonight

- Event: The Jackson Hole annual conference is held, and Powell will speak at 10 o'clock.
- Core content of the speech: Focus on interest rate cuts, policy review, inflation concerns, labor market, and political pressure.
- Key impact: Directly related to the probability of a rate cut in September (over 90% last week, down to 71% this week), which will indir

Market Daily Report for August 21

1. Core Events

Kanye's coin YZY: The total market value reached a maximum of 3 billion USD upon launch, currently has 1 billion USD left, and the circulating market value is low, being accused of using fame to raise money. Due to past market experiences, it did not trigger significant fluctuations, indicating that such tokens may experience long-term declines.

2. Market Core

- Ethereum: $4100 support regained, currently stable above $4250, has not yet broken through $4400, in a period of fluctuation.
- Conflicting market signals: Moving averages show a

August 20 Market Daily Report
Staying Strong During the Pullback - Seizing Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year

1. Core Market Conditions of the Day

- Ethereum has shown significant volatility, briefly falling below $4100 before rebounding. In the short term, it needs to hold above $4100 to meet expectations.
- The hourly level is still in a downtrend, with weak support at 4100 USD and strong support around 3600 USD. If the downtrend continues, 4000 USD may be breached; a rebound must stabilize above 4400 USD to break the retracement trend, with short-term bears in control.

2. Ma

BTC Ether