EncryptionSecondBrother

#RWA代币化与资产 The Ethereum report card for 2025 is interesting—technological upgrades are steadily progressing, with Pectra and Fusaka upgrades effectively reducing L2 costs and transaction confirmation times. The stablecoin market continues to expand, and the RWA tokenization share exceeds 50%. However, the token price performance has been disappointing—those bought at the beginning of the year are still down by over 15%.
The core contradiction lies here: ETH ETF inflows surged from $4 billion to $10 billion, and the Ethereum treasury of listed companies has surpassed 5.56 million coins (worth

#链上应用与预测市场 Crypto.com announces a public recruitment for predictive market quantitative traders, a signal worth paying attention to. On the surface, it appears to be a routine talent acquisition, but it reflects several issues worth considering.
First, Crypto.com publicly admits to participating in predictive market trading for the first time, which means the platform no longer hides its counterparty relationships with users. This increased transparency is neutral in itself, but the key is to observe subsequent implementation standards—market-making teams are tasked with "maximizing profits,"

Since the October crash, the flow of chips has been worth paying attention to. Data shows that long-term holders are distributing heavily, especially those selling chips in the $60,000-$70,000 range—most of these positions were accumulated before last year's presidential election, and now, after significant profit compression, they are rapidly realizing gains.
Even more concerning is the inverted cost structure: 7.462 million coins are floating with unrealized gains below, while 6.168 million coins are floating with unrealized losses above—appearing nearly balanced, but in reality, profit-taki

#稳定币市场 From the perspective of capital flow, the total supply of stablecoins has surpassed 300 billion, with an annual trading volume of 46 trillion—Ethereum accounts for 54% of the share, and this number itself indicates the issue. Pectra and Fusaka's two hard forks directly reduced costs, and the implementation of account abstraction means Gas fee payments becoming the norm. Optimizing the user experience of stablecoins is fundamentally transformative.
What’s even more noteworthy is the actions on the institutional side: JPMorgan has launched tokenized money market funds on the mainnet, and

#预测市场 Crypto.com's move to recruit quantitative traders this time is quite interesting, as it directly exposes the trading logic behind prediction markets. As a newcomer in the sports prediction market sector, it has already begun to require professional market-making teams to provide liquidity—essentially engaging in reverse trading with retail investors, leveraging information and algorithmic advantages to profit.
From the perspective of on-chain capital flows, prediction markets are still in the early stages, but the entry of large institutions is worth contemplating. Once enough professio

#RWA实物资产代币化 After carefully reviewing the 2025 Ethereum report card, the core contradiction is clear: a victory at the network layer contrasted with a setback at the asset level.
Data shows that ETH treasury holdings have reached 5.56 million coins, accounting for 4.6% of the total supply, with an asset scale exceeding $16 billion. ETF cumulative inflows have grown from $4 billion in the first half of the year to over $10 billion, gradually opening the institutional allocation pathway. These "wrappers" are transforming ETH from a game for traders and developers into a mainstream asset allocat

#比特币宏观表现 Looking at the latest data, Bitcoin's Q4 decline exceeded 22%, marking its worst performance since 2018. But a closer look at the logic behind this rebound is quite interesting—rising to $90,000 seems impressive, but the underlying capital signals are quite weak.
From an on-chain perspective, this is more of a technical correction rather than a sign of new market entry. The movements of large holders remain cautious, and no clear signs of significant buying have been observed. The total crypto market cap has regained the $3 trillion level, but whether it can hold this critical positi

#比特币价格走势 Saylor's recent remarks are worth a close look. The logic of a 5% holding targeting a $1 million valuation actually describes an assumption about liquidity concentration—assuming that Strategy becomes the main accumulator, how the scarcity premium would play out. But there are several on-chain data points that need validation:
First is the current actual holding size of Strategy. From public records, they are already significant institutional-level holders, and each increase in position indeed leaves traces on the chain. Yesterday's Tracker update may indicate a new round of accumula

#加密货币监管框架 Michael Selig's appointment as CFTC Chair is a personnel change worth noting. From the perspective of on-chain capital flows, this could alter recent policy expectations.
Here are some key points: First, a shift from "strict enforcement" to "regulation-focused" suggests a relative easing of regulatory pressure, potentially reducing compliance costs for projects; second, the coordination framework between the SEC and CFTC will accelerate, directly impacting the boundary definitions between spot markets and derivatives markets; third, the Trump administration's "Made in America" crypt

#永续合约市场动态 Bitcoin retaking the 90,000 level has drawn attention to the perpetual contract market. Open interest increased from 304,000 BTC to 310,000 BTC, a 2% rise, while the funding rate rose from 0.004% to 0.009%—both indicators moving in the same direction, indicating that longs are gradually building positions.
From an on-chain perspective, this signal is quite clear: leveraged longs are preparing for possible volatility at the end of the year. The rising funding rate suggests traders are willing to pay higher costs to maintain long positions, which typically reflects expectations of fur

#稳定币市场发展 The liquidity of stablecoins in the BSC ecosystem has once again seen a substantial application scenario. Kalshi's integration with BNB Chain means that users can directly participate in prediction trading using on-chain BNB and USDT/USDC, eliminating the friction costs of cross-chain bridging.
From a capital flow perspective, this partnership signals several noteworthy points: First, the differentiated support for US accounts (BNB/USDT vs BNB/USDT/USDC) reflects refined considerations of regulatory costs and market positioning; second, prediction markets as a niche within the deriva

BlackRock's recent statement warrants close attention — elevating Bitcoin from an "alternative asset" to one of the "three pillars" alongside U.S. Treasuries and tech giants is not just a marketing tactic but a substantive shift in institutional narrative.
The key signal lies in their logical reasoning: no longer emphasizing Bitcoin's speculative nature but approaching it from a "macro mirror" perspective — the widening U.S. federal deficit, escalating global fiscal imbalances, and institutions seeking "non-correlated" assets outside the traditional banking system. This explanation provides th

#比特币价格走势 Galaxy's forecasting framework is worth paying attention to. The $250,000 target by the end of 2027 may seem aggressive, but the core logic is solid: the wide price range reflected in the options market ($50,000-$250,000) precisely indicates institutional consensus on long-term trends—what's uncertain is the path, not the direction.
A few details worth tracking: First, the structural changes in the volatility smile curve, where rising put option premiums indicate market risk pricing is maturing—this is driven by the scale expansion of institutional covered selling and yield strategie

#稳定币增长与监管 Amplify's recent moves are worth paying attention to. The two new ETFs are respectively aligned with stablecoin technology and tokenized assets, with very clear holdings compositions—STBQ focuses on infrastructure layer assets like SOL, ETH, XRP, LINK, while TKNQ expands to cover 53 asset classes across the RWA landscape.
From an on-chain perspective, this reflects institutional differentiation in judgment between the two directions: the stablecoin sector, as regulation becomes clearer, is beginning to attract compliant capital; tokenized assets are positioned as a longer-term growt

#Polymarket预测市场 After reviewing Kalshi's research report, the data is quite interesting. Over a 25-month observation period, the prediction market's average error in CPI forecasts was 40% lower than Wall Street's, with even more pronounced advantages during volatile periods, sometimes exceeding consensus by 67%.
The key lies in the mechanism of the prediction market—traders' economic incentives drive the full pricing of information. Compared to unidirectional analyst consensus, the "collective intelligence" formed by market trading responds more sensitively to changing environments. This is n

#去中心化预测市场 The data changes on Polymarket are worth paying attention to. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year has dropped to 10% from earlier expectations, reflecting a clear weakening in market expectations for a short-term breakout. In comparison, the probability at the $95,000 level remains at 32%, while the chance of falling below $80,000 has risen to 18%—this distribution reveals the market's true sentiment: downside risks are accumulating, and upside potential is shrinking.
From an on-chain capital perspective, the probability trends in such prediction markets oft

#代币锁定与派发机制 The recent changes in BTC chip structure are worth paying attention to. According to on-chain data, within two months after the crash on 10.11, long-term holders have been engaging in large-scale distribution—the BTC sold at a cost basis of $60,000-$70,000 accounts for the largest volume. This batch of chips mainly comes from accumulation before the US election, and now, after taking profits, they are eager to cash out.
From a structural perspective, the $80,000-$90,000 range has accumulated 2.536 million BTC, making it the strongest support at the moment. The gap between $70,000-$

#RWA市场 The two new ETFs launched by Amplify are indeed worth paying attention to—STBQ tracks the Stablecoin Technology Index (holding XRP, SOL, ETH, LINK), and TKNQ focuses on the digitization of physical assets (53 asset classes), both listed on NYSE Arca. But the underlying logic behind them is even more worth dissecting.
According to BlockBeats' analysis, RWA tokenization follows two completely different paths: the DTCC model optimizes equity records within the existing indirect holding system, maintaining net settlement efficiency and targeting large-scale institutions; the direct ownersh

The unusual movement in US Treasury bond options warrants attention. CME data shows that the open interest of March-expiring 10-year US Treasury bond options surged to 171,153 contracts over the past week, a 300% increase within the week, with the total premium approaching $80 million — such a concentrated bet scale is not driven by retail investors.
What are traders betting on? The 10-year US Treasury yield has returned to 4%. From a technical perspective, the high point this month reached 4.20%, and on Monday it retreated to 4.16%. These key levels happen to be the focus areas for option str

#Polymarket预测市场 The buzz around prediction markets is indeed worth paying attention to. From on-chain fund flows, Coinbase's acquisition of The Clearing Company, Crypto.com's official announcement of a quantitative trader position, and Kalshi's integration with BSC—these three pieces of news have been densely released within 48 hours, indicating that traditional exchanges are shifting from observation to substantive deployment in this sector.
What is the core signal? Major exchanges are no longer just participating passively but are actively capturing market share through acquisitions, hiring