The Australian dollar, as the fifth largest trading currency globally, ranks just behind the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound in trading activity. This position should make the AUD attractive to investors, but the reality is quite the opposite—over the past decade, the Australian dollar has performed persistently poorly, depreciating over 35% from the 1.05 level in early 2013 to its current level. So, will the AUD continue to fall? What is the underlying logic?
Why has the AUD fallen into a long-term decline? Three fundamental reasons
The suppression by a strong dollar cycle
This is not an issue unique to the AUD. During the same period, the euro, Japanese yen, and Canadian dollar also depreciated against the US dollar, while the US dollar index (DXY) rose by 28.35%. This indicates that the AUD's weakness stems from a comprehensive US dollar appreciation cycle. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the AUD/USD fell by 9.2%, and by 2025, it even touched a five-year low of 0.5933, with market concerns about the AUD intensifying.
The double-edged sword of commodity currency attributes