#Gate广场圣诞送温暖 Forecast for the coming months: Indicator signals are clear, choppy upward trend
The worst news has already happened:
The Fed will not cut rates in December, and there is no QE
BTC has been persistently weaker compared to the Nasdaq, following drops but not gains; this kind of correlation is happening for the first time in history (the reason being AI offers higher certainty)
The four-year cycle has ended, transitioning from bull to bear, and smart money is exiting on a large scale
After the US confiscated 126,000 BTC from Chen Zhi, people realized BTC is not secure (the truth is, 3 to 5 million BTC wallets are unsafe due to pseudo-random key generation), accelerating the decline
Leading DAT companies are trading at a negative premium, and small companies are starting to sell holdings to survive; spot ETFs continue to see net outflows
The underlying truth is:
Smart money already distributed chips above 110,000. Over several months, the distribution process is basically complete. Retail investors below 110,000, due to ongoing losses during the drop to 80,000, have been constantly forced to sell and exit.
To use eggs as an example: capitalists think eggs priced at 10 yuan each are too expensive. If the price keeps rising, their holding cost becomes too high, so they want to sell first, drive the price down, and then buy back at a low price of 1 yuan. That’s what happened from October to November this year. Ultimately, in the eyes of capitalists, BTC at 110,000–126,000 and ETH above 4,500 are still too expensive—they’ve already done the valuation math.
Looking at the technical patterns, which never lie, a clear oversold signal has emerged in the short term. The market is expected to enter a choppy phase in the near future, with both ups and downs, but from the perspective of March next year, these 3-4 months will ultimately show a choppy upward trend.
If we’re optimistic, this is the bottom. If we’re pessimistic, for example due to negative news like geopolitical conflicts, support may be found between 75,000 and 80,000.
Good news that is bound to happen in the future does not include macro easing for now, such as ambiguous Fed rate cuts or QE.
1. Clear token legislation. For a long time, regulatory uncertainty has constrained industry development. It is expected that this legislation will pass in Q1 2026, at which point a clear regulatory framework will be established, clarifying regulatory powers and responsibilities, and eliminating legal gray areas. Many large asset management companies and pension funds that have been waiting on the sidelines will be prompted to enter the market.
(Potential positives: SEC approval of more crypto products, tax incentives, etc.)
2. Continued expansion of traditional asset tokenization. Major financial institutions such as JPMorgan, BlackRock, and Franklin Templeton are all advancing the tokenization of government bonds, real estate, commodities, and stocks, and are building dedicated tokenization platforms. In fact, Robinhood has already launched tokenized stocks for a while—this not only validates the value of crypto infrastructure, but also proves that blockchain technology isn’t limited to digital assets like BTC. As asset tokenization advances, previously illiquid assets can be traded around the clock with less demand for leverage, making BTC’s role as a neutral settlement asset increasingly prominent, akin to a network transmission protocol for digital finance.
3. Accelerated growth of stablecoins. This is a severely underestimated positive factor. The global use of stablecoins is expanding rapidly, especially in developing countries. USDT and USDC have gradually become USD payment channels in many regions worldwide. Whether it's Nigerian citizens receiving USDC instead of naira, Argentine companies holding dollar stablecoins instead of pesos, or cross-border payments settling with stablecoins instead of correspondent banks, all of this means crypto infrastructure has become an indispensable part of global trade.
