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Ethereum faces the dilemma of efficiency versus value in the Web3 era. By adhering to the PoS mechanism and the decentralization philosophy, it pursues trustworthiness even in the worst-case scenarios. Despite widespread criticism, it continues to gain substantial user support. Although its development appears conservative, it demonstrates a robust ecosystem vision.

Polymarket, through analysis of 295,000 market data points, found that liquidity is extremely uneven, mainly concentrated in a few successful predictions. While there are many ultra-short-term markets, 63% of events have no trading, indicating low actual activity; in contrast, long-term markets attract more funds. Sports predictions show polarized trading volumes, while real estate predictions are stuck in a cold start dilemma. Overall liquidity ultimately concentrates in popular categories, indicating that participant demand drives market evolution.

The Bitcoin market is showing a trend of institutional capital returning by 2026, with the current price around $89.94K. The Coinbase Premium Index indicates that US institutional funds are gradually shifting to buyers, and market sentiment has also improved. However, potential risks should still be watched carefully, and investors are advised to proceed cautiously rather than rushing to buy at higher prices.

The cryptocurrency industry has once again been shrouded in darkness. Russian founder Vyacheslav Taran died in a helicopter crash, becoming the third crypto founder to die under mysterious circumstances within a month. His previous business activities sparked controversy and added to the mystery. The industry’s awareness of security concerns in the crypto space has been heightened once again, and a series of incidents highlight the potential risks faced by high-net-worth individuals.

Market sentiment is undergoing a dramatic reversal, with investors shifting from fear to optimism. Since the "Liquidation Massacre" in October last year, the market has been in long-term panic, but recently the sentiment index has rapidly risen to 61 points, indicating a rebound in risk appetite. Bitcoin follows market sentiment fluctuations, with prices rising and stabilizing, but hidden risks still need to be cautious of. Investors should maintain a balance between optimism and prudence.

Entering 2026, the global investment market environment is becoming clearer, and the importance of gold as a major monetary asset is rising. Central bank demand continues to grow, becoming an advantage for long-term allocation. Short-term technical corrections are actually good opportunities to increase holdings. Additionally, cryptocurrencies and AI stocks are also attractive, and the Indian market shows potential. Under a clear policy framework, risk appetite improves, and investors need to seize the opportunities brought by adjustments.

Bitcoin's price movements always follow a certain rhythm. Many market observers have found that this rhythm is closely linked to Bitcoin's halving events, forming what is called the "4-year cycle"—a psychological cycle that deeply influences crypto traders' mindset. However, with the impact of stablecoin crashes, this seemingly solid pattern is facing unprecedented challenges. This article will trace the evolution of Bitcoin cycles, especially how stablecoin collapses have rewritten the rules of market operation.
The Three Acts of the Cycle: Accumulation, Boom, Liquidation
Bitcoin's standard cycle can be divided into three distinct phases. The first is the "Accumulation Phase," which usually begins after the previous cycle's price peak. At this time, market sentiment is冷, trading activity and on-chain data are subdued, but long-term holders start building positions on dips. This phase typically lasts 12 to 15 months, during which prices show a gradual recovery trend.
Then it enters the "Expectancy Phase." When

As global economic uncertainty rises, gold prices are expected to surge significantly in 2025, surpassing $4,550 per ounce and attracting many investors to allocate assets in gold. Among them, the gold token XAUT issued by Tether has become a popular choice due to its credit foundation, innovative valuation units, and extensive trading ecosystem. However, XAUT still faces price volatility and liquidity risks, and investors should approach it rationally, considering it as part of a diversified asset allocation.

Ethereum verification protocol Truebit was hacked this week, resulting in losses of $26 million. The main reason was vulnerabilities in an outdated contract from five years ago. The hacker exploited the flaw in the contract to mass mint TRU tokens and arbitrage. This incident highlights the increasing security risks in DeFi and the new strategy of hackers using "archaeological" methods to hunt old vulnerabilities, reminding the industry to pay attention to contract maintenance and permission management.

The cryptocurrency market rebounded at the beginning of the year, with Ripple (XRP) performing exceptionally well supported by institutional funds and spot ETFs, with a gain of 3.22%. The yen's upward momentum increased risk appetite, and the market renewed its interest in risk assets. XRP's technical breakout, coupled with capital inflows, contributed to the rally. Ripple's settlement with the SEC reduces legal risks and enhances XRP's potential in cross-border payments. Investors should exercise caution regarding market volatility.

Entering 2026, global market risk appetite shifts to a more positive stance, presenting opportunities in investment sectors such as gold, AI, and emerging markets. The rebound in gold indicates strong demand, and AI valuations become more attractive after adjustments. The stability of the US fiscal situation improves, and BDCs offer yield potential. The Indian market remains optimistic. Investors should exercise caution when interpreting complex signals from cryptocurrencies. In a clear environment, moderate risk allocation becomes a key focus.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has raised sharp questions about decentralized stablecoins, pointing out three core challenges: the structural contradiction of high yields, the security dilemma of oracles, and dependence on the US dollar. While decentralized stablecoins have potential, they have yet to challenge the market dominance of centralized stablecoins. The conflict between demand and reality makes their development difficult. True breakthroughs require fundamentally solving these challenges.

The mining industry is facing difficulties, but according to VanEck's analysis, a decline in hash rate may indicate a rebound opportunity. History shows that a decrease in hash rate is usually accompanied by a market rebound, especially when small and medium-sized miners are forced to exit. At the same time, institutional funds are gradually entering the market, increasing their holdings of Bitcoin in hopes of capturing bottom opportunities. This suggests that the industry will shift from decentralization to centralization, and the future market outlook is promising.

Many investors believe that using leverage can achieve higher returns, but five-year data shows that spot dollar-cost averaging offers the best risk-return ratio. While 2x leverage can amplify gains, 3x leverage results in excessive drawdowns and low cost-effectiveness. In highly volatile assets, leverage strategies incur more significant volatility losses, making it difficult for most people to profit in the long term. The rational choice is to trust time rather than pursue leverage.

The Bank of Japan is about to raise interest rates to 0.75%, with market predictions indicating a 98% probability of a rate hike. Historical data shows that the last three rate hikes did not cause a significant decline in Bitcoin, and the background noise of rate increases does not affect market trends. The main driving force comes from capital inflows rather than policy changes. The Christmas season has historically been friendly to the crypto market, and with increased liquidity in the future, the digital sector's potential remains bullish.

The recent cryptocurrency market has rebounded due to improved US inflation data. Bitcoin has regained the $90,000 level, and Ethereum remains above $3,000, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies. Additionally, the crypto market has diverged from the US stock market, demonstrating independent trends. Geopolitical risks have increased, especially with the Iran situation affecting market volatility. Future inflation data and related policy statements will influence the direction of the crypto market, and investors should exercise caution.

Taiwanese IT expert Lin Ruiqiang, 24, secretly operated the world's largest cryptocurrency drug trading platform, "Incognito Market," while serving as a diplomatic substitute service member. He faces charges in the United States for conspiracy to distribute drugs, money laundering, and other serious crimes. Lin Ruiqiang's case exposes the international criminal networks of the digital age and highlights the importance of cryptocurrency regulation, which could lead to higher detection risks and legal prosecution.

HashKey Holdings successfully listed in Hong Kong, becoming the first publicly listed parent company of a virtual asset exchange. Although it attracted major institutional investments, the stock price on the first day did not meet expectations, and it ultimately closed the day stably. Chairman Xiao Feng emphasized that the company has been preparing for a long-term listing, believes that virtual assets are still in a growth phase, and has not made profitability its primary indicator. He also expressed confidence in Hong Kong's future regulatory policies.

Taiwan's blockchain ecosystem has been developing rapidly since 2009, and an updated industry map for 2026-2027 will be released, inviting participation from all teams. This map documents the evolution of Taiwan's blockchain industry and reflects the latest market conditions. Qualified teams can fill out a questionnaire, and after evaluation, will have the opportunity to showcase on the international stage. Join us in shaping the future of Taiwan's blockchain.