TranXuan

$ETH PCE Index – US PCE Inflation
📌 Core PCE (core inflation) – increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month
👉 This is in line with forecasts, not significantly higher or lower than market expectations. 
📌 PCE YoY (year-over-year) – increased by approximately 2.8%, also within market forecasts. 
✔️ This means:
• Core inflation is not hotter than expected
• But it also hasn't decreased more than anticipated
→ This is a “neutral news” rather than clearly better-than-expected good news.
📌 Overall Impact
🔹 No surprise news → stock markets are slightly supported ahead of the data. 
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$ETH If PCE LOW:
• Wait for the price to bounce back to support
• Buy zone: 2980 – 3010
• Stop Loss: 2950
• Take Profit: 3060 → 3120
If PCE HIGH:
• Wait for the price to rebound upward
• Sell zone: 2995 – 3020
• Stop Loss: 3055
• Take Profit: 2920 → 2865

$ETH 🧠 3 SCENARIOS & IMPACT ON ETH
🟢 Scenario 1: LOWER-than-expected PCE (good for crypto)
• Inflation clearly cooling down
• FED has less reason to be hawkish
➡️ ETH / BTC likely TO RISE
But:
• First 5–15 minutes prone to sharp moves / stop hunts
• Then the trend begins
⸻
🔴 Scenario 2: HIGHER-than-expected PCE (bad for crypto)
• Inflation remains high
• FED keeps interest rates high longer
➡️ ETH likely TO DROP SHARPLY, possibly breaking support
⸻
🟡 Scenario 3: PCE as expected
• Market technical analysis
• Potential sideways movement – fake break

$ETH 🔥 Safe Long Scenario (Conditions)
• H1/M15 has a confirming bullish candle at the support zone
• Buy zone: 2980 – 3015
• Stop Loss: 2950
• Take Profit: 3060 → 3120
🔥 Safe Short Scenario (if the pump is too strong and technical factors are weak)
• Price reaches the strong resistance zone: 3080 – 3120
• There is a rejection candle + clear volume sell-off
• Stop Loss: 3150
• Take Profit: 3000 → 2920

$ETH ✔️ Low NFP than expected → supports crypto to rise
❌ But do not enter the trade immediately after the news
⏳ Wait for a clear technical zone confirmation before entering

$ETH short

$ETH ❌ Only when one of the following occurs:
• H1 closes above 3050
• Price remains steady above 3020–3030 for ≥ 2 H1 candles
• Strong breakout volume + clear BTC movement
👉 Currently, NONE of these conditions are met.
⸻
🧠 Brief conclusion for you
• Short position: STILL valid
• Analysis: CORRECT
• Risk: due to overly heavy position → need to reduce

$ETH 1. 3025 Rejected
→ Correct resistance zone EMA30 + BOLL UB H1
2. Reversal candle appears
→ Buying pressure cannot be sustained
3. Volume weakens / contracts
→ Not genuine capital inflow
4. H4 still in a downtrend
• Price remains below MA/BOLL mid
• MACD H4 still negative, no reversal signal yet
👉 This is a pullback in a downtrend, not a trend reversal.
⸻
🎯 Next scenario (important)
🔻 Main scenario (high probability)
• Price does not break back above 3020–3025
• ETH will test again:
• 2950
• 2920
• And the TP at 2875 remains unchanged

$ETH short eth

$ETH 3000

$ETH had a big short order yesterday with a stop loss at 3380, this guy is really good

$ETH ETH is leading, so it lags behind BTC.

$ETH ⛔ NOT BUYING THE DIP right now
• Long immediately ~3120 RR bad
• Potentially pushed back to 3090–3070
⸻
🔴 SHORT TERM (can be executed@
Only short if there are M5/M15 signals
Good shorting zone:
• 3140 – 3155
Conditions:
• M5/M15 with a clear bottom / red engulfing candle
• Do not surpass 3160
SL: 3185
TP:
• TP1: 3095
• TP2: 3070
👉 Scalping, do not hold long-term
⸻
🟢 SAFE LONG SCENARIO )more preferred(
WAIT FOR PRICE TO REACH SUPPORT
• Long zone 1: 3090 – 3070
• Long zone 2: 3030
Conditions:
• M15 shows a clear bottom
• MACD on M15 turning up
SL: below 2980
TP:
• 3140 → 3180

$LIGHT 1️⃣ 4H Frame
• Clear DOWN trend.
• Price below MA & middle Bollinger, trend not broken yet.
• The rebound earlier to ~0.65 has failed.
➡️ 4H remains the main sell trend, not yet a safe long.
⸻
2️⃣ 1H Frame
• Price around 0.608 – 0.61, weak rebound.
• Bollinger opening downward, price unable to surpass mid/MA.
• MACD still negative, buying pressure weak.
➡️ H1 = rebound for selling, not for chasing buy.
⸻
3️⃣ 15-minute Frame
• Slight sideways movement after the drop.
• Technical rebound, no clear break yet.
➡️ Suitable for timing, not for entering large positions.
⸻
✅ CLEAR CONCL

$LIGHT Quick Overview
• Current Price: ~0.626
• 24h Range: 0.5915 – 0.6648
• Recovering after a sharp decline, still in a major downtrend.
⸻
🔍 Timeframe Analysis
🔴 D1 (1 Day)
• D1 candle shows technical rebound, still below the middle MA/Bollinger
• Main trend: DOWN
👉 Not recommended for long-term buy and hold
⸻
🟠 H4 (4 Hours)
• Price is rebounding but rejected around 0.65 – 0.665
• MACD weakening, buying pressure not strong
👉 H4 prefers SELL on rebound
⸻
🟢 H1 (1 Hour)
• Price is undergoing a technical rebound
• H1 has not broken through 0.635 – 0.64
👉 This is a safe selling zo

$LIGHT 📌 H1 CLOSE 0.56 → ABSOLUTELY DO NOT BUY
🔴 The meaning of H1 close 0.56
• Close near the recent bottom
• Confirm continuation of downtrend
• This is no longer a pullback, but a break of the bottom
• Selling pressure has not ended
👉 Catching the bottom now = wrong move
⸻
🔴 RIGHT action at this moment
❌ Do not do:
• ❌ Do not buy
• ❌ Do not average down
• ❌ Do not “try to buy a little”
✅ Should do:
• ⏸ STAY OUT
• If there are still SELL signals from above → HOLD, SL to break-even
• Wait for the market to form a real bottom
⸻
🟢 When can we THINK about BUYING?
Only when there i

$LIGHT Sell only when the price does NOT break the resistance
• Ideal sell zone:
• 0.618 – 0.625
• Conditions:
• H1 shows a rejection candle / red candle
• No closing above 0.625 on H1
• Take Profit:
• TP1: 0.589
• TP2: 0.565
• TP3: 0.535
• Stop Loss:
• Above 0.635
👉 This is a sell according to the main trend

$LIGHT I analyze very straightforwardly – very practically according to the multi-timeframe H1 / H4 / D1 of LIGHTUSDT, okay? 👇
(This is the most important section, read carefully.)
⸻
📌 SHORT-TERM CONCLUSION
❌ DO NOT BUY
⚠️ SELLING IS ONLY FOR THOSE WITH OPEN ORDERS – DO NOT CHASE SELL
👉 Staying on the sidelines is the smartest choice right now
⸻
🔍 Detailed analysis of each timeframe
🔴 H1
• Price 0.576
• BREAKS below the BOLL band strongly
• Drop straight down, no accumulation yet
• MACD negative and expanding
👉 This is a strong sell-off + panic, not a buying zone
🔴 H4
• A long red

$LIGHT TP Deep 0.55