Ash2023

"I just vibe coded using Claude code"

2025: Public Markets and Crypto Both Priced the Future Wrong
Cross-market hangover.
In equities:
More than two-thirds of (tech) IPOs are trading below their IPO price. Most companies sold growth expectations that simply didn’t materialise fast enough.
In crypto:
The same dynamic played out at TGE. 84.7% of 2025 token launches are below their TGE valuation, with the majority sitting in the 70-99% drawdown “graveyard zone.”
What happens in 2026?
Source: @dailychartbook @mementoresearch

the prediction market epidemic has gone too far

Skewing the data and pulling this kek
#PlayKami

2025 token launches have mostly been a bloodbath
Tracked 118 TGE launches this year and compared today’s FDV vs opening:
• 84.7% (100/118) are below TGE valuation
• This means ~4 out of 5 launches are below their opening valuation
• Median token is -71% FDV (-67% MC) from launch
• Only 15% are green vs TGE
TGE isn’t early anymore reee
Full data:

When you look at a token’s price (all down bad now LMEOW), what amount of supply are you valuing?
Token valuations answer that question --> Crypto needed various metrics because tokens don’t behave like equities:
• A normal tokenomics piechart tells you that supply is split across public float, locked allocations, vesting, future emissions, burns
• 2 tokens at “$200m market cap” can have completely different dilution + liquidity realities
- - - - -
We relied on 2 methods thus far
a) Market Cap (MC)
• Default “ranking” metric where MC = Price × Circulating supply (public float)
• Gives us an id

which type of bar are you at on a friday night?
@rajgokal @keoneHD @bread_