BitLiuBei

March 16 BTC/ETH:
Middle East Geopolitical Conflict Eases, Can BTC Rally Continue to Push Higher on Monday Morning?
6 AM US Media: Trump announces multi-country joint agreement this week to jointly facilitate passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Due to easing supply-demand relations, the USD and crude oil WTI open under pressure in the early session. High-level profit-taking selling pressure, short-term capital inflows into crypto, leading to across-the-board rebound!
BTC
Early session saw price surge driven by external factors, but real-time trading volume shows volume-price divergence. K-li

Unlimited rallies will ultimately revert to their true form!
How much longer will this false surge be maintained? Trading opportunities come from waiting. The intraday pullback failed to test support at 7060. A small-level bounce touched the daily pressure at 7400, so wait for shorts near 7400. It takes only minutes to reverse a day's gains—this is clearly a dog whale pump-and-dump trap!
I've repeatedly emphasized not to chase rallies. It's a fake pump and real bull trap. When the dog whale throws out sell orders, the market longs are left lamenting. I've been laying an ambush for 7380 shorts

March 13 BTC/ETH:
After several days of consolidation, did the bulls break higher today?
The biggest factors determining the market's major trend are the results of Fed rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts, which directly determine whether major players can enter and drive up the market. First, the Fed's March 18 interest rate decision will definitely not cut rates, and geopolitical conflicts remain in a stalemate. Looking at the funding rate from yesterday, short-term gains show negative rates, which is the consistent pattern of taking big losses for small gains, and currently it has returned

Hit me, short-term stable pump the dog whale! $BTC

March 12 BTC/ETH:
Downtrend continuation, four-hour head and shoulders pattern indicates the next sharp decline?
Last night, the highly anticipated end-of-month CPI data was expected to cause a relatively large fluctuation. The data release was in line with expectations, leading to a small rebound followed by a pullback. From the overall market trend, the rebound highs are gradually decreasing, showing a clear distribution rhythm. Did the high point at 7080 still hold yesterday?
BTC
Currently, the candlestick pattern shows both Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing coexist. The momentum is clearl

The biggest variable is tonight's CPI. If the data is in line with expectations, there won't be much suspense, and the market will basically show slight fluctuations!
Generally speaking, it's almost certain that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates on March 18. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts, which is contrary to the trend, looks like a landmine—there's a risk of a sudden plunge at any time!
The premise of trading is to seek profits and avoid harms, to avoid major risks and then refine the signals given by the market. Enter at the right time and place, and the results will

March 11th BTC/ETH:
I'm back. Up until today, due to the busy New Year period and health reasons, I paused updates for a whole month to rest and adjust my mindset. Now I’m fully recharged and ready to face each market wave with a better attitude. Let’s all keep going!
Regarding the market, the trend is basically the same as my pre-holiday forecast. Overall, it’s in a prolonged consolidation and fluctuation phase. Recently, geopolitical conflicts have caused oil prices to rise, Trump’s attitude has somewhat softened, and the market has started to rebound slightly. However, the overall policy di

February 11 BTC/ETH:
Non-farm data is expected to be exaggerated by over a million, possibly leading to the next sharp decline!
The non-farm employment figures and unemployment rate will be announced tonight. Wall Street has issued early warnings that the annual benchmark revision will eliminate over a million jobs, which were previously just face-saving data for the Federal Reserve rate cut meeting. The actual downward revision will definitely cause the Fed to reconsider inflation data, likely triggering market fear and a sharp decline!
BTC
Currently, the K-line shows a clear bearish pattern,

Don't try to bottom fish, don't try to bottom fish, don't try to bottom fish!
Three times for emphasis, the current market is clearly in mid-term bear market, with weak rebounds, excessive selling pressure, no significant capital inflow. Short-term counter-trend longs should take profits quickly. Never think about trying to change the pattern; rebounds won't be too high, and once selling resumes, it will be a waterfall. So the first priority is to avoid unnecessary risks and go short with the trend!
Yesterday's short position once again proved prophetic. Bitcoin rebounded to 7000 before shorti

February 10th BTC/ETH:
A rebound is not a bull return, just a dead cat bounce at the end!
Currently, the market has rebounded from the lowest point by ten thousand points, giving everyone hope. However, the reality is that institutional players are still gradually clearing their positions, meaning the true bottom has not yet arrived. The key point regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut timing is: there will be no rate cut in March-April; only after Bush takes office in June is there a certain chance of a cut. Meanwhile, other countries are beginning to tighten monetary policy, making a rate

Is it too late to call the shots? You guys decide.
To be honest, today’s strategy missed the mark by half a step. Why half a step? Last Friday, I bought long at the bottom around 6400 with a target of 7200, and at the top, I set a daily resistance at 7200 to take profits and reversed to short. The market indeed moved as expected. When I updated the post today, the market started to retrace. The rebound didn’t give a good entry opportunity, so it’s half a step.
The main idea is to provide everyone with an overall framework for trading, to avoid mistakes that could lead to losses. From 9700 and

February 9th BTC/ETH:
A rebound rather than a reversal. The Federal Reserve's probability of cutting interest rates in March is only 23.2%!
Over the weekend, the market surged twice, marking a successful conclusion to Friday’s low-volatility strategy. Bitcoin is expected to rise from 6400 to 7200, and Ethereum from 1860 to 2100. Although the market surged significantly, the overall trend remains in the mid-term bear market. The low probability of rate cuts is not optimistic, so long-term bottom fishing should wait. Key events this week: Tuesday inflation expectations, Wednesday non-farm payrol

Don't ask how much more, bottom-fishing?
The real-time market trend is the answer!
U.S. stocks opened higher with little gain, and the February inflation index was announced at 3.5%, lower than the expected 4%, which also boosted market sentiment in the short term. The market rebounded nearly 15% from its lowest point. Actually, the biggest current problem is that the market is facing a series of declines, and instinctive fear drives more buying. Conversely, this can also be seen as a bullish factor because long leverage has been largely wiped out. This is the correct understanding of buying w

February 6th BTC/ETH:
The market plunged again late at night to the 60,000 level, is this the final liquidation of the last big whale hunting the panic sellers?
As of now, BTC has retraced 50% from its all-time high in just four months, with a single-day drop of over 10 points. The 70,000 level is where many spot traders have their main positions. Breaking below this psychological level has accelerated chain reactions of selling. Big whales are also being forced to cut losses. Yesterday, the peak was at 7,200, with the secondary target at 2,150, and the fourth target at 6,500, with 1,900 succe

If I don't rely on others to lift me up, I will rise to the heights of the blue sky on my own?
Three weeks of continuous decline, Bitcoin has dropped over 30,000 points, reminding me of a line from Water Margin: "Today falls, tomorrow falls again." Doesn't that cold the hearts of the many investors? But the always passionate investors who are full of tears have already exploded, those who cut losses have already done so, leaving only the believers lying flat with faith still intact!
The current market is characterized by a break followed by a chain of sell-offs and stampede effects. Everyone k

February 5th BTC/ETH:
Bitcoin drops below the critical 7,000 level, is the four-year cycle curse still in effect?
First, the main force on Wall Street's spot ETF has sold off $1.2 billion in one week, totaling $5.5 billion in sales over three months. Slightly smaller institutions are also rebounding at high levels to shake out weak hands. The panic institutions are either on the verge of liquidation or already being liquidated. It was previously mentioned that dropping to 7,450 is definitely not the bottom. This is a chain reaction of panic selling caused by fear. Those who can't hold on are f

February 4th BTC/ETH:
Late-night market drops sharply, but institutions are buying in the opposite direction?
The price is not much different from yesterday. The difference is that some people's positions are gone. As mentioned before, 7450 is not the bottom, just a stage of rebound from the bottom. On the news front, the federal shutdown has ended, but geopolitical tensions continue. What’s different is that on-chain institutional funds are starting to buy in. Whether the market can stabilize depends on whether the main players can offload their holdings!
BTC
Currently, the weekly support lev

February 3rd BTC/ETH:
The market has started to rebound. Is it time to clear out the long positions?
Previously, I have to mention today’s violent rebound in precious metals. As long as geopolitical tensions do not end, the market will not surge significantly, which also limits liquidity in the crypto space. The direct result is that today’s overall market is sideways. Therefore, as long as the US stock market opens lower tonight, the probability of a rebound will increase significantly!
BTC
The current market is in a clear consolidation pattern. The bullish engulfing candlestick and the golde

Are all the waterfall declines driven by fear?
There's a saying: "When others are fearful, I am greedy." In the psychology of the market makers, it's the opposite. The first round of dips that should have been a breakout already happened, leaving only the ever-hopeful retail investors to start bottom fishing. Now that the second round of decline has begun, it's time to give up and start reducing positions. Pushing the market up again becomes much easier!
On the smaller timeframes, a double bottom pattern is forming. During the day, everyone should watch for long positions at the bottom, with t