#日本央行 #加息
The true driver of Bitcoin's price movement is not the Federal Reserve. Currently, market attention is focused on the Fed's interest rate cuts and inflation data, but what can truly shift global capital flows is Japan, which is often overlooked.
The Bank of Japan is about to start raising interest rates. Even if the increase is only 0.25 percentage points, this is not a typical rate adjustment but a fundamental shift in its decades-long loose monetary policy.
The core issue is not the size of the rate hike but "who" is raising rates.
The Fed's rate hikes have long been the norm, but Japan is entirely different — an environment of near-zero interest rates for a long time has made the yen the lowest-cost financing currency globally.
Over the past decades, global capital has generally borrowed low-interest yen, exchanged it for other currencies, and poured into stocks, real estate, and high-yield risk assets like Bitcoin. This is yen arbitrage trading.
This model has quietly added an invisible leverage layer to global risk assets but is rarely seen as a core influencing factor. But this time, the situation is completely different.
When the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, it directly shakes the foundation of arbitrage trading: the yen will appreciate, borrowing costs will rise, leverage operations will become unprofitable, and large amounts of capital will be forced to close positions passively. This liquidation behavior is unrelated to market sentiment or fundamental analysis; it is purely mechanical operation after a rule change.
Why does the crypto market always lead the way?
Because assets like Bitcoin are highly liquid and traded 24 hours a day, making them extremely sensitive to capital flows. When risk appetite shrinks, the stock and credit markets respond relatively slowly, and crypto assets become the easiest "capital exit" point.
The logic behind this is clear: even a small rate hike by the Bank of Japan touches the core of global low-cost funds.
In the short term, risk asset prices may fluctuate due to capital withdrawal, but this is merely a liquidity adjustment, not a collapse in the assets' intrinsic value.