Dữ liệu PANews: 63% thị trường ngắn hạn trên Polymarket không có giao dịch trong 24 giờ, 505 hợp đồng hàng đầu chiếm 47% khối lượng giao dịch

PANews on January 8 reported that PANews recently analyzed historical market data from 295,000 markets on the Polymarket platform. The data shows:

1. Over 60% of short-term markets have become “zombie” markets: Among active markets with cycles less than 1 day, 63.16% of contracts have 0 trading volume in 24 hours.

2. Scarce short-term crypto liquidity: The average trading volume of short-term sports markets ($1.32 million) is 30 times that of crypto markets ($440,000), indicating that crypto short-term predictions lack capital support.

3. Extreme head effect: Only 505 mega-contracts with trading volume exceeding $10 million (extremely low proportion by count) monopolize 47% of the total platform trading volume.

4. Large capital prefers long-term: The average liquidity of long-term predictions (>30 days) is 45 times that of single-day markets, with US politics leading at an average volume of $28.17 million.

5. Geopolitics on the rise: This sector’s active proportion reached 29.7%, becoming the fastest-growing track.

The data indicates that Polymarket is diverging into a “high-frequency sports casino” and “macro political hedging” platform, with liquidity highly concentrated in extremely few top narratives.