Warning Bitcoin 2026 enters the "Bear Market Year"! Fidelity experts reveal the "key support level"

Fidelity's global macro research director Jurien Timmer, who has a long-term positive outlook on Bitcoin, has recently become more conservative. He warned that Bitcoin has likely completed another “4-year cycle” and will enter a correction period lasting up to a year, with the possibility of facing a “crypto winter.”

Jurien Timmer pointed out that historically, Bitcoin's trend has always followed a continuously repeating cyclical pattern. From the perspective of historical laws and time structures, the current market phase closely matches the past multiple transitions between bull and bear markets.

He specifically mentioned that Bitcoin reached a historic high of $125,000 this October, after experiencing a rise of about 145 months, which completely aligns with the expected range of historical models.

Jurien Timmer stated that the Bitcoin bear market (commonly referred to as a “crypto winter”) usually lasts about a year. He therefore believes that after the recent halving cycle ends, 2026 could be a “year of rest” for Bitcoin. He said:

I still have a long-term positive outlook on Bitcoin, but my concern is that, whether in terms of price or time, Bitcoin has likely completed another 4-year halving cycle.

Since past Bitcoin crypto winters have mostly lasted about a year, I believe that 2026 may be a year of temporary truce and consolidation for Bitcoin. From a technical perspective, the key support area below is around $65,000 to $75,000.

In contrast, Jurien Timmer has a significantly more optimistic view on gold. He pointed out that since 2025, gold has performed strongly, in stark contrast to Bitcoin's relative weakness this year, and does not expect a “mean reversion” between the two in the short term.

According to his observations, gold is currently in a bullish market, with a cumulative increase of about 65% this year. It not only outpaces the growth rate of global money supply but also maintains most of its gains during the recent market correction, demonstrating typical characteristics of a bull market.

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Tags: 20264 Year Cycle Fidelity Jurien Timmer Analysis Cryptocurrency Fidelity Market Coin Price Investment Bitcoin Bear Market Bull Market Trend