MICA Daily｜Shooting oneself in the foot? Tom Lee's Fundstrat sees BTC falling to 60,000 and ETH falling to 1,800 USD next year.

Last Friday, the Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate to 0.75%, in line with market expectations, leading to a broad increase in U.S. stocks. Bitcoin rose from 85,000 to 88,000 USD, then fluctuated within a narrow range over the entire weekend with almost no volatility. This time, Japan is considered to be in a “dovish rate hike” stance; the interest rate has increased, but the Governor of the Bank of Japan did not indicate that there would be continued rate hikes and stated that the current rate is still relatively low. Therefore, the market expects that Japan will not significantly raise interest rates in the short term, easing tension and temporarily alleviating concerns about liquidity exhaustion. This is similar to the effects of the U.S. “hawkish rate cut,” and it is evident that the two countries have coordinated their policies and wording.

Various institutions have consecutively revised their outlook on cryptocurrency prices, including Fundstrat, the fund company of ETH bull Tom Lee. Although Tom Lee himself predicts that Bitcoin and Ethereum will reach new highs in January next year, Fundstrat's investment advisory report for clients regarding cryptocurrencies in 2026 is bearish. The report mentions that in the first half of the year, BTC will pull back to a minimum of $60,000, ETH to a minimum of $1,800, and SOL to a minimum of $50, which contradicts what Tom Lee has stated.

However, the report believes that if cryptocurrencies fall to that price range in the first half of the year, it would be the best entry opportunity, as the report suggests that there is a chance for a rebound in the market in the second half of the year. Therefore, this presents a highly attractive investment layout opportunity. Furthermore, later this week is Christmas, and the coin market should not experience significant fluctuations in the next two weeks due to the holiday, driven by the US market. However, due to reduced liquidity, there may continue to be “liquidation trends,” so it is important to pay attention to this situation during the holiday period.

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Tags: BTC ETH Fundstrat SOL Tom Lee liquidation market dovish interest rate hike hawkish interest rate cut