CryptoQuant asserts that the "Bear Market has arrived"! Bitcoin demand momentum has cooled, and it may test $70,000.

On-chain data analysis company CryptoQuant warns that due to the significant weakening of Bitcoin demand momentum, crypto assets are likely entering a bear market, and the risk of further falls cannot be ignored.

CryptoQuant recently released a report stating: “(Bitcoin) demand growth has obviously slowed down, indicating that the market will enter a Bear Market. Since 2023, Bitcoin has experienced 3 waves of spot demand, driven respectively by the listing of the US spot ETF, the US presidential election, and Bitcoin reserve companies.”

However, since the beginning of October 2025, this surge in demand has fallen below the long-term trend line, indicating that the new buying pressure in this cycle has largely been absorbed by the market, causing Bitcoin to lose its key support strength.

Based on the current weak trend, CryptoQuant believes that the downside risks for Bitcoin are gradually emerging, with “70,000 dollars” as the first important support area. If the market fails to regain bullish momentum, further downside to 56,000 dollars cannot be ruled out. The report indicates:

Historically, the bottom of the Bitcoin Bear Market often coincides with the 'Realized Price' (reflecting the average cost of all holders), which is currently around $56,000.

If it truly backtests that price level, it means that Bitcoin has fallen about 55% from its historical high, which may instead become the smallest correction in history during a Bear Market.

The mid-term support level for Bitcoin is around 70,000 USD.

Regarding the timing of market concerns, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno revealed: “A pullback to 70,000 USD could happen within the next 3 to 6 months; as for a deeper fall to 56,000 USD, if it indeed occurs, it may fall in the second half of 2026.”

He further added that this wave of Bear Market actually began in mid-November this year, following the largest liquidation event in the history of crypto assets on October 10.

3 Big Data Confirmations: Funds are Withdrawing

CryptoQuant listed 3 key data points to support the view that “the Bear Market has arrived”:

1. ETF turns into net sellers: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has turned into a “net outflow” status, with a decrease of approximately 24,000 Bitcoins in holdings, in stark contrast to the strong buying activity during the same period last year.

2. Large Holders Retreat: Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins (including ETFs and corporations) are growing at a rate below the trend line, indicating a deterioration in demand similar to the end of 2021, just before the Bear Market of 2022.

3. Derivatives Cooling Down: The funding rates of perpetual contracts (calculated using a 365-day moving average) have dropped to their lowest point since December 2023. A decrease in funding rates usually indicates a reduced willingness of bulls to maintain leverage, which is a typical characteristic of a Bear Market. Additionally, the coin price has fallen below the 365-day moving average, which is often viewed in technical analysis as the dividing line between bull and bear markets.

CryptoQuant has thrown out a disruptive perspective: “The core engine driving the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is 'demand cycles,' not 'halving events.'” When demand growth peaks and begins to decline, a Bear Market often follows, regardless of the dynamics on the supply side.

It is worth noting that the pessimistic tone of CryptoQuant stands in stark contrast to the recent views of major Wall Street firms, with fierce battles between bulls and bears in the market:

• Citigroup: The baseline scenario predicts that Bitcoin will rise to $143,000 in the next 12 months, while the most optimistic scenario sees it reaching $189,000;

• JPMorgan: Based on the valuation against gold, maintains the view that Bitcoin could reach 170,000 USD.

• Standard Chartered: Although it has become more cautious and cut its Bitcoin target price for 2026 in half, it still maintains it at $150,000.

• Bitwise: Firmly believes that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026.

  _ Disclaimer: This article is intended to provide market information. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. They do not represent the views and positions of the blockchain. Investors should make their own decisions and trades. The author and the blockchain will not bear any responsibility for any direct or indirect losses incurred by investors' trading. _

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