Warning Bitcoin 2026 enters the "Bear Market Year"! Fidelity experts reveal the "key support level"

Fidelity's Global Macro Research Director Jurien Timmer, who has been optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term, has recently turned more conservative. He warned that Bitcoin has likely completed another “4-year cycle” and will enter a correction period lasting up to a year, and he does not rule out the possibility of facing a “crypto winter.”

Jurien Timmer pointed out that, based on historical experience, the trend of Bitcoin has always followed a continuously repeating cyclical pattern. From the perspective of historical rules and time structure, the current round of market conditions closely aligns with past transitions between bull and bear markets.

He specifically mentioned that Bitcoin reached a historical high of 125,000 USD this October, which was achieved after experiencing about 145 months of growth, fully aligning with the expected range of historical models.

Jurien Timmer stated that the Bitcoin bear market (commonly referred to as “crypto winter”) usually lasts about a year. He therefore believes that after the recent halving cycle ends, 2026 may be a “year of consolidation” for Bitcoin. He said:

I remain long-term bullish on Bitcoin, but my concern is that, in terms of both price and time, Bitcoin has likely completed another 4-year halving cycle.

Since past Bitcoin winters have mostly lasted about a year, I believe that 2026 may be a year of temporary truce and consolidation for Bitcoin. From a technical perspective, the key support area below is around 65,000 to 75,000 dollars.

In contrast, Jurien Timmer's outlook on gold is significantly more optimistic. He points out that since 2025, gold has performed strongly, which stands in stark contrast to Bitcoin's relative weakness this year, and he does not expect a “mean reversion” (where asset prices return to long-term average levels) to occur between the two in the short term.

According to his observations, gold is currently in a bull market, with a cumulative increase of about 65% this year. It has not only outperformed the global money supply growth rate, but also maintained most of its gains during the recent market correction, demonstrating typical bullish characteristics.

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