# BTC市场分析

#BTC市场分析 The October crash was the most clearly seen not in the price itself, but in the chips speaking. Now, with on-chain data laid out, long-term holders are engaging in an epic distribution—this is a signal—someone is cashing out profits, someone is cutting losses, and some are lying flat and accepting their fate.
25.36 million BTC are accumulated between $80,000 and $90,000, an increase of 1.874 million from October. It looks like a bottom support, but I need to ask myself a question: Are these chips truly locked in by long-term value believers, or are they forced trapped positions? The

#BTC市场分析 Recently, Michael Saylor's views have been flooding the feed, claiming that if Strategy accumulates 5% of the total Bitcoin supply, the price could surge to $1 million—this number sounds crazy, but the logic behind it is actually worth pondering.
The inherent scarcity of Bitcoin determines its value density. As large institutions continue to make substantial purchases, the circulating supply shrinks, increasing supply pressure. Imagine if the most capable global funds are competing for the same limited asset—how could the price not rise? This is not speculation; it is the inevitable

#BTC市场分析 Seeing this wave of institutional rhetoric, I need to review it from a historical perspective.
BlackRock lists Bitcoin as one of the three major investment pillars for 2025, while Galaxy and VanEck are respectively projecting million-dollar targets for 2026-2027—these voices sound very familiar. I still remember at the end of the 2017 bull market, similar institutions were telling similar stories, only back then the terminology was "blockchain revolution" rather than "non-correlated asset hedging."
But this time, there is indeed a difference. What's the difference? The pricing in the

#BTC市场分析 After reviewing Murphy's on-chain data analysis, I have to say that the recent changes in the chip structure are indeed worth paying attention to.
Since the October crash, the scale of long-term holders' distribution has been "epic"—the chips with a cost basis of 60,000-70,000 USD are being sold off most aggressively. Most of these people likely accumulated their positions before the election, and now that profits are being pulled back, they are rushing to exit. I can understand, after all, the four-year cycle, quantum threats, and macro uncertainties—these noises can indeed shake in

#BTC市场分析 Recently, I saw BlackRock's decision, and I have some thoughts I want to share with everyone.
Placing Bitcoin alongside U.S. Treasuries and leading technology stocks as the three main investment pillars for 2025 not only reflects a shift in institutional attitudes but also signifies a deeper consideration of the global fiscal landscape. BlackRock's logic is clear—against the backdrop of expanding sovereign debt and rising currency devaluation risks, seeking "non-correlated assets" outside the traditional financial system has become a necessity.
But I want to remind everyone that inst

#BTC市场分析 Polymarket data has shown a clear shift in sentiment over the past two days. The probability of BTC reaching $100,000 again this year has decreased from 10% on December 21 to 8% on December 23, a 20% drop. Meanwhile, the probability at the $95,000 level has fallen from 32% to 25%, and the risk of falling below $80,000 has increased from 18% to 15%.
This reflects a narrowing of market expectations for further upside. With less than two weeks until the end of the year, BTC is currently fluctuating between $92,000 and $94,000, still over $6,000 away from $100,000. From on-chain fund flo

#BTC市场分析 Wow, Galaxy and VanEck are both calling for BTC to reach $250,000 in 2026-2027, and BlackRock is even more outrageous by listing Bitcoin as one of the three pillars of a modern investment portfolio (on par with US Treasuries and the seven tech giants).🚀
Listen to this logic: institutions are betting on global currency devaluation, exploding federal deficits, and liquidity crunches... In plain terms, inflation is coming, and all kinds of capital are looking for non-USD hedging assets. The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is fully established.
More importantly, the pricing in th

#BTC市场分析 Recently, I saw Wintermute's market report and discovered a very interesting phenomenon😍 Retail investors seem to be starting to flow back from various small coins into mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, and buying pressure has been consistently surpassing selling pressure?
This is crucial for a newcomer like me! I was a bit confused before, not knowing when to act. Now it looks like the market structure is tightening, and institutional funds have been continuously buying since summer... It feels like a signal for us to follow the smart money, first watch BTC's performance, and the

#BTC市场分析 Looking at the latest Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year has dropped from 10% to 8%. This signal is worth considering. Conversely, the forecasted probability of $95,000 is at 25%, and the risk of falling below $80,000 has increased to 15%.
Market uncertainty is increasing, which is actually a reminder for the meme traders — don’t bet all your chips on a single price expectation. Instead of waiting passively for a specific price target, it’s better to focus on stable interactive meme farming. Platforms like Polymarket are high-frequency airdr